Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession

Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more than the 7-8% most expect, the peso and bonds would come under pressure next week. And Banxico would be even more likely to hike rates when it meets on Thursday. Meanwhile, Argentina’s Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to confirm that the economy has plunged into recession.