Ending 2018 on a weaker footing

EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect slower growth across large parts of the emerging world next year and our forecasts are, in most cases, below consensus. Despite the slowdown, EM central banks continued to tighten monetary policy in late-2018 and further hikes lie in store over the next six months or so as price pressures continue to build.