Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jan.) The slowdown in base pay in January underlines that the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten monetary policy anytime soon. Meanwhile, the jump in household spending in January is good news but we... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for the Andes? We expect recoveries in Colombia, Chile and Peru to continue over the coming years as investment strengthens and consumer spending picks up. There are downside risks to the outlook – namely large... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: early signs that strong demand is leaking into imports Q4 GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) confirmed that last year’s pick-up in regional growth was driven by an improvement in consumer spending and investment. However... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The Economy Watchers Survey weakened further in February as poor weather persisted. The survey suggests that private consumption has slowed quite sharply. 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) Revised GDP data show that growth was stronger in Q4 than initially reported. But with the economy running into capacity constraints, we still think that the expansion will lose vigour this year. 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit in January is actually a concern because it was driven by a large decline in imports, which points to weakening domestic demand. In addition, the further... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by net exports. Timelier evidence suggests that growth is no longer accelerating, but we still expect the... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Is India finally coming of age? Talk of India’s potential to become the “next China” is inevitable given their enormous populations, and will intensify as China’s economy slows. Those hoping that India can match China’s former rates... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The most encouraging aspect of the fourth-quarter GDP release was the acceleration in the various measures of income growth. Even so, we suspect that still-subdued income growth and a soft housing... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity producers on the mend GDP data for 2017 revealed a widespread improvement in growth in key EM commodity producers last year. While we are relatively downbeat on the medium-term prospects for most of these economies, we... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the PMIs getting it wrong? Markit’s PMIs have recently pointed to faster economic growth than the official data show, once again raising questions about their accuracy. However, even if they are currently over-stating growth a... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in January was largely payback for an especially strong outturn in December – we still expect the industrial recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in PMIs eases fears of continued slowdown Following a downward revision to quarterly GDP growth in Q4, from 0.5% to 0.4%, a deterioration in all three of the headline PMI balances in January raised concerns that growth had continued to slow... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late 2017 South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy moving towards recovery It looks like Saudi Arabia’s economy turned the corner in late 2017 and, while the early data from the start of this year have been disappointing, a recovery should still get underway. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
