Capital Daily US Treasury yields unlikely to drop much further The sharp fall in interest rate expectations and long-term government bond yields over recent days in response to renewed US-China tensions has brough the 10-year Treasury yield to around its lowest... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions (and answers) on rare earth elements With China’s rare earth export controls back in the spotlight, this Update answers seven key questions on the in-vogue elements and the economic consequences of disruption to their supply. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US-China re-escalation fallout: two key lessons Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Real Estate Lending (Sep.) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate reached $4.1bn in September, its weakest monthly outturn since April. That was below the monthly average of $4.7bn for the year-to-date and less than... 13th October 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We doubt this equity correction will last long Even after tumbling today amid US-China trade tensions, the S&P 500 remains close to its all-time high. That’s despite investors seemingly believing that the risks around US inflation are increasingly... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada lacking both carrot and stick in US negotiations Prime Minister Mark Carney had less fortune in the US than the Blue Jays this week, returning with little in the way of relief on sector-specific tariffs or a commitment to the future of CUSMA. The... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Little consumption upside from home refinancing uptick The extent to which the recent drop in mortgage rates and flurry of home refinancing can boost consumption is limited, as most homeowners still hold pandemic-era sub-4% loans. While there is some... 10th October 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Oct 2025) Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low of 55.0 in October, from 55.1, as a cocktail of labour market weakness, above-target inflation and, potentially, the ongoing government shutdown... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2025) The broad-based jump in employment in September reversed much of the weakness in prior months and will help reassure policymakers that they can afford to focus on the upside risks to inflation for now... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will the US Treasury market keep calm and carry on? The gradual decline of volatility in the US Treasury market over recent months has helped underpin the buoyant mood in equity and credit markets. But, even if Treasury market volatility does not flare... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Strong supply pipelines cloud outlook for D.C. & Miami Multifamily is set to be a top-performing sector over our five-year forecast, but returns will differ significantly across the 17 metros in our coverage. Miami and D.C. are likely to struggle as... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New lead indicator points to short-lived capital value growth Our new CE Capital Value Lead Indicator suggests that all-property capital growth may finally turn positive on an annual basis in H2 2025. But importantly, it also suggests that any growth this year... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep 16-17) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-September FOMC meeting confirm that “most participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting”... 8th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Answering your questions on the economic outlook and AI We held an online Drop-in session yesterday (see here for a recording) to discuss the US economic outlook. This Update answers several of the questions we received, including the role that AI will... 8th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Equities Update UK-US valuation gap reflects more than just AI hype We expect the UK stock market will continue to underperform its more tech-heavy US counterpart as enthusiasm for AI continues to grow. What’s more, if the bubble in AI were to burst, we think there is... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
