Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show trade uncertainty still the main drag The main theme running through the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly business and consumer surveys is uncertainty, with CUSMA renegotiations on the horizon. This supports our view that exports and... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fool's gold? The price of gold has arguably risen so far above ‘fair’ value that it might come crashing down soon. 20th October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Boost from lower mortgage rates to be short-lived While slightly lower borrowing costs have boosted the near-term outlook, the decline has not been large enough to meaningfully improve housing affordability. In addition, we believe that market... 20th October 2025 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on autopilot through shutdown fog Comments from Chair Powell and various other FOMC participants confirm the federal funds rate will be lowered again later this month in spite of the recent rebound in surveyed hiring intentions. We... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of regional bank jitters Although the dramatic fall in the share prices of US regional banks has sparked memories of the 2023 mini banking crisis, the backdrop is very different this time. We don’t think these jitters are... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Small businesses sounding the alarm The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer this month leaves it consistent with a renewed decline in GDP. With firms’ inflation expectations under control, that adds weight to our view that the Bank of... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Conditions for carry trade set to turn less favourable. We think after a period of sustained outperformance, total returns in high-yielding EM currencies relative to funding currencies will be weaker in the next couple of years. In particular, we forecast... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2025) The weakness in the MLS House Price Index in September was largely due to a decline in Toronto, where there is little sign of a turnaround in sight. That presents a risk to our view that the... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) While the economy appears to be narrowly avoiding recession, we expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3%... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How the AI boom is concentrating S&P 500 earnings growth As the US Q3 reporting season gets underway, here’s a sobering observation: the ‘big-tech’ sectors – information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary – have accounted for... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The future still looks bright for US diversified banks We think the outlook for US diversified banks is sunny, given the prospects for bonds and the economy. 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The advanced economy impact of China’s deflation Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in advanced economies over the past few years, reducing the level of headline CPI by around 0.3-0.5% on average. Tariffs are likely to reverse... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2025) The August manufacturing and wholesale sales data were not as bad as feared, and suggest that despite the 1.0% m/m fall, the tentative manufacturing recovery that we’ve seen since June hasn’t... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and residential sectors set to outperform globally In a period of slow economic growth but stabilising inflation and earnings growth, we expect the residential sector to see the strongest rental growth globally, with industrial close behind thanks to... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update What long-run r* are investors pricing in? While market pricing already looks consistent with our view that r* will rise to around 2% in the US over the coming decade, a deeper look suggests that there is still room for investors’ rate... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
