US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Oct. 2025) The 42,000 rebound in ADP private employment in October lends support to the view that firms are resuming hiring now they have more clarity on trade and immigration policy. That said, the usual caveat... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Oct 2025) Mortgage activity dropped back this month as further declines in borrowing costs, which had boosted mortgage activity in August and September, were minimal. While the ongoing government closure... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget big but not “generational” The 2025 Budget leaves the federal deficit roughly double its current size out till the end of the decade, but it will still average just 2.5% of GDP, implying the new measures hardly constitute the... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Reliance on tech is a double-edged sword The S&P 500’s reliance on big-tech sectors to drive returns is clearly problematic when sentiment towards those sectors sours, as has happened today. But we think this reliance will ultimately... 4th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2025) The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Support for the auto sector must shift up a gear Ottawa will need to take evasive action to stem the gradual exodus of US manufacturers from the auto sector. While counter-tariffs and quota reductions will help retain production if US tariffs stay... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Explaining our non-consensus views on central banks We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily AI rally keeps on trucking in spite of the Fed A more hawkish tone from the Fed and a mixed reaction to recent big tech earnings reports presents another potential speedbump for risky assets. Ultimately, we think continued robust US growth... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FOMC strikes back; dollar rebound has further to go The dollar has continued to strengthen in the wake of a relatively hawkish message from the FOMC. Combined with a generally more neutral stance from other central banks this week, that has taken the... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mixed reaction to this week’s big-tech results The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly December rate cut still the most likely outcome The Fed delivered a hawkish rate cut this week, with Chair Jerome Powell pushing back against market expectations for another at the next FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, we would argue that it makes more... 31st October 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug 2025) The shock 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in August is not quite as bad as it looks, given the role played by temporary factors and the accompanying upward revision to growth in July. Nonetheless, it provides... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities Making sense of the changing nature of the AI capex boom US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equities have more to gain as tensions ease We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
