Bank of Canada Watch

Bank set for another rate cut

Despite stronger core price pressures in May and June, the totality of the data is still supportive of another interest rate cut next week. With GDP growth below potential and shelter inflation now...

17th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Four points on rotation

A recent surge in the Russell 2000 after the US CPI report for June was published last week has prompted claims that we are entering the initial stage of a secular rotation into US small-cap stocks...

17th July 2024 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Jun.)

The rise in manufacturing output in June was better than we expected based on the small fall in hours worked, but it owed a lot to a rebound in motor vehicle production, which seems unlikely to be...

17th July 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jun. 2024)

The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary...

17th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jul. 2024)

Further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada should breathe some life into the housing market in the coming months, but the dimmer outlook for rent growth and apartment prices present downside...

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end?

We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve.

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Flight to more affordable South set to continue

Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability...

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core prices rose at an above-target monthly pace for the second month running in June. Nonetheless, with the Bank’s Business Outlook...

16th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (June)

Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% m/m rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment...

16th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank surveys show need for looser policy

The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys point to weak GDP growth, show that firms’ wage expectations are now lower than their pre-pandemic peak, and suggest that consumers are increasingly...

15th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Four key points on Trump & financial markets

Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key...

15th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Manufacturing Sales (May 2024)

The continued rise in manufacturing sales and new orders suggests that the sector gained some momentum in the second quarter. However, we expect that strength to fade this quarter.

15th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Rate cuts will offer relief to housing this year

The latest housing market data paint an almost ideal picture for the Bank of Canada, with activity improving, but little sign of a surge in house prices that could derail the downward trend in core...

12th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Assessing the market fallout from that inflation print

We think the rally in Treasuries and pullback in the dollar since US CPI data was released yesterday have further to run. But we doubt the big rotation within equities yesterday is a sign of things to...

12th July 2024 · 4 mins read