Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still rising, as housing slumps The Bank of Canada will have eyed this week’s data releases and market moves with some trepidation. The further acceleration in core CPI inflation in April means the Bank is all but guaranteed to push... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Spender of last resort With China’s economy hampered by its zero-covid lockdowns, and Europe’s economy suffering because of the massive surge in imported energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine, the American consumer has... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage debt service ratio to remain low The surge in mortgage rates has led to a sharp deterioration in home affordability. But that doesn’t mean the mortgage debt service ratio, the share of disposable income spent on mortgage payments... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales fell once again in April, although for now they remain above their pre-COVID-19 level. But, with mortgage rates set to stay high and credit conditions unlikely to loosen... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week due to exports rising faster than imports and refineries stepping up operations. But high petroleum product prices should hold back demand in the coming... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy powering ahead The strength of the hard activity data for April refutes the recent message from financial markets that the economy is at risk of imminent recession. The solid gain in control group retail sales... 18th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) CPI inflation edged up to a new cyclical high of 6.8% in April, from 6.7%, and, together with the more marked increases in core inflation, that almost guarantees the Bank of Canada will hike its... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts dropped by a marginal 0.2% m/m in April, driven by the single-family sector which also saw building permits fall for the second month in a row. Housing demand is faltering due to a... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500 The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening. 18th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative prospects for US equity REITs We expect US equity REITs to remain under pressure between now and the middle of next year, given our view of the US stock and bond markets. Nonetheless, we doubt they will underperform US equities... 17th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.8% rise in manufacturing output last month underlines that it is not just consumer spending powering the economy forward. While the survey evidence suggests global manufacturing demand is... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Never bet against the US consumer has always been a good adage to bear in mind throughout my 20-plus years in the markets. Despite the surge in prices weighing on their purchasing power, the US... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The rise in manufacturing sales in March was entirely due to higher commodity prices, but the orders data and the business surveys suggest that sales volumes will do better in the coming months. 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in the next few... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings might not bail out the S&P 500 The S&P 500 might continue to struggle if, as we expect, slowing economic growth and rising labour costs causes corporate profits to grow by less than most anticipate. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7% The unexpected further jump in gasoline prices, reflecting a sharp widening of refiners’ margins, means we now expect headline CPI inflation to rise above 7% in May. While the rise in refiners’... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
