US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey showed a further improvement in sentiment, driven by more confidence in prospects for the office and retail sectors. However, since the survey was conducted, the outlook for growth... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect US big tech will remain under pressure We think that there is plenty of scope for US “big tech” in general to stay under pressure, given the prospects for TIPS and the potential for future earnings to fall short of expectations. 27th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) The recovery in employment broadly continued in March. However, the laggards in the recovery still look many months away from previous peaks in terms of both total and office-based employment. At the... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed’s hawkish transformation complete We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 50bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and to launch its quantitative tightening, with the cap on maturing principal allowed to roll off each month quickly rising... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth The further fall in the unemployment rate in March, to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, raises the risk that a sharp acceleration in wage growth will exacerbate inflationary pressures, at a time when... 27th April 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) Month-on-month house price growth rose to a record high in February, as households desperate to buy before interest rates increased bid up the price of those few homes for sale. But the surge in... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The solid increase in durable goods orders in March reflects both easing supply shortages as well as strong underlying investment demand. Business equipment investment is usually one of the more rate... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2022) Total returns on the NCREIF index were strong again in Q1, at 5.3% q/q. That was led by industrial, where they reached 11% q/q, with apartments at just over 5% and the other sectors all lagging at... 26th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Divergence in regional mall performance set to persist The squeeze on consumer incomes points to a tough couple of years ahead for regional and super-regional malls, which tend to be more reliant on discretionary spending than other retail property types... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to push harder on the brakes With Fed officials seemingly competing to try and sound more hawkish than their peers, a 50bp rate hike next month appears nailed on – even though this week also brought further tentative signs that... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update What the evolving monetary policy outlook means for bonds This Update presents our revised forecasts for the yields of developed market (DM) long-term government bonds, in light of recent market moves and changes to our expectations for monetary policy. 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales were basically unchanged in February, but this understates the strength of total spending following the lifting of the Omicron wave restrictions on high-contact services. As consumer... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential Economic activity should expand at a strong pace this year but, with the Bank of Canada set to tighten policy rapidly, we expect the quarterly pace of GDP growth to slow below potential in 2023, as... 21st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update There is still likely to be a reckoning for offices We think the recent upturn in office market performance is largely down to the one-off release of pent-up demand and remain downbeat about future prospects. With occupancy still languishing and remote... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Can cash buyers keep house prices booming? Rising mortgage interest rates and tight credit conditions pushed the cash buyer share of existing home sales to a six-year high in March. But while the cash buyer share and house price growth are... 21st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Softer housing demand to bring down US lumber price A cooling US housing market will weigh on lumber prices, despite disruption to imports from Canada. We expect the lumber price to continue its downward trend, but to remain well above its 10-year... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
