US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rise in inflation cements 75 bp hike The May CPI data showed that inflationary pressures remain acute across the economy, which reinforces our view that despite growing concerns about the housing market, the Bank of Canada will become a... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed refuses to blink, as growth fears mount Chair Jerome Powell signalled this week that the Fed will press ahead with its planned series of aggressive interest rate hikes, even as evidence mounts that economic growth will be weak in the second... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears overdone The surge in interest rates, plunge in the stock market and weakness of consumer confidence have fuelled fears of an impending recession, but there is still little sign of that in the incoming... 23rd June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the case for US bank equity outperformance The prospect of weaker economic growth has reduced the appeal of US banks’ equities, even though they may yet benefit from a renewed rise in long-dated Treasury yields and still appear relatively... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still think the backdrop is favourable for the US dollar Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The jump in CPI inflation to 7.7% in May all but guarantees that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by a larger 75 bp next month, particularly with inflation on track to accelerate to over 8... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook All-property returns to fall to zero next year as values slide The dramatic shift in the interest rate environment over the first half of the year means that we have brought forward (and increased) our forecasts for yield rises. Property valuations now look as... 21st June 2022 · 24 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Surging mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in May to their lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns two years ago. And with mortgage rates set to rise to 6.5% by... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rise in retail sales volumes in April reinforces our view that overall consumption growth will accelerate sharply this quarter but, with consumer confidence plunging in June and the housing... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in mortgage rates makes house price falls likely We have previously argued that a mortgage rate of above 6% represents the threshold at which house price falls become likely. With rates recently rising above that level, we are therefore revising... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy still bending rather than breaking Evidence that economic growth has rebounded in the second quarter, alongside the likelihood of a further big rise in consumer prices in June, suggest that the Fed will press ahead with another super... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in May adds to the evidence that the economy is slowing. But there is still little in activity data to suggest a recession is on the horizon, or to... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights to push inflation above 8% The new CPI weights outlined this week mean that inflation will peak at more than 8% in June, which is higher than we previously expected. That further raises the chance of the Bank of Canada... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for US Treasuries & the S&P 500 We think the sell-offs in US government bonds and equities have further to run, and have revised our forecasts for 10-year Treasuries and the S&P 500 accordingly. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Housing starts in May recorded their largest month-on-month decline since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. A fall in housing demand due to higher mortgage rates is occurring at the same time as... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
