UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) The cracks evident in the latest batch of labour market data are likely to soon turn into a chasm with the unemployment rate rising from 3.9% to around 7.0% by mid-2021. 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Number of people on furlough already down by half By July, we think that around 4 million people had already left the government’s job furlough scheme and 5 million remained on the scheme. That fall is faster than we had expected but does not change... 10th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown The state of Victoria isn’t getting its virus outbreak under control and imposed draconian restrictions on economic activity this week. These will of course undermine the recovery, but they also mean... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) Wage growth improved a little in June and household incomes are rebounding now that most furloughed workers are back in work. Meanwhile, the surge “core” household spending in June supports our view... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in Q2 shows that the government’s generous wage subsidy protected many jobs but we suspect that as that comes to an end, unemployment may rise somewhat Q3. 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) The sharp drop in the number of furloughed workers and the rise in industrial production in June bodes well for the recovery in economic activity in the second half of the year. But while the... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market recovery slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment rose by “only” 1.0 million in July, as the renewed spread of the virus started to weigh on the economy. With employment currently still 15 million below... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (July) & Euro-zone Unemployment (June) The further increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for July echoes the message from other surveys that the recovery continued at the start of Q3. But it tells us little about how far... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued Weekly payroll data suggest that the recovery in employment has started to go into reverse and we now expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8.5% in Q3. We believe that the huge amount of slack in... 30th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - JobKeeper extension to keep lid on unemployment The government will extend the JobKeeper wage subsidy by six months. Unemployment benefits will be made less generous which should encourage many of those having dropped out of the labour force to... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May/Jun.) The smaller-than-expected fall in employment in May and evidence that the first wave of joblessness in the coronavirus crisis ended in June shows that the furlough scheme has been effective in... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) After a sharp contraction in Q1, the economy bounced back strongly in Q2, with the level of GDP reaching a new high. What’s more, the monthly activity and spending figures show that growth was still... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jun.) The labour force rose faster than employment in June, pushing up the unemployment rate. However, we think that employment will soon pull ahead so unemployment probably won’t rise any further. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Unemployment rate to drop back but remain elevated The unemployment rate, which at 12.3% is the highest among the major developed economies, should drop below 9% by December. We expect progress beyond then to be much slower, unless the hinted... 14th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone unemployment will only peak in mid-2021 Euro-zone unemployment now seems likely to peak at a lower rate and about a year later than we had previously forecast, mainly due to the widespread use of short-time working schemes. But the partial... 9th July 2020 · 21 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wage growth weakened further in May, but we think household incomes are recovering as furloughed workers either return to work or receive their mandatory leave allowance. 7th July 2020 · 2 mins read
