US Economics Weekly Yellen to be first female Treasury Secretary This week the markets were buoyed by the news that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary but, while she is eminently qualified, her lack of political deal... 25th November 2020 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains at risk of stalling We expect a further slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 400,000 in November, as the recovery in the employment-intensive restaurant and leisure sectors stall. 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to tighten, trade tensions to persist Some analysts have expressed optimism that the signing of the RCEP will help ease trade tensions between Australia and China, but we doubt the agreement will do much to calm the waters. Meanwhile, the... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The surge in employment in October largely preceded the relaxing of restrictions in Victoria so we expect that November data should show a further rise. 19th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Unemployment benefit expiry not a major threat The expiry of the remaining enhanced unemployment insurance programs at the end of the year would hit the incomes of the unemployed but would be unlikely to deal a major blow to the economy. With... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q3) The weakness in wage growth in Q3 was partly driven by the delay to the minimum wage increase but we still think overall wage growth will remain soft in the years ahead. 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
US Economics Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 32 mins read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of job retention schemes Recent extensions to job retention schemes and hopes of a vaccine appear to have improved the outlook for labour markets. But there is still a risk that governments scale back support too quickly and... 16th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The latest data suggest that the broad-based acceleration of China’s economy continued in October. Policy stimulus continued to boost investment and industrial output while growth in real retail sales... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.) The second estimate that euro-zone GDP rose by 12.6% q/q in Q3 was little different to the “preliminary flash” estimate published a fortnight ago and means that GDP was 4.4% below its Q4 2019 level... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
