Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q1) The stability in wage growth in Q1 tells us little about the impact of the virus outbreak on the labour market and a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters is likely. 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour market conditions even worse than they look The labour market is in a far worse place than even the bleak headlines suggest. The unemployment rate rose to 13% in April, but it would be 30% if we included all the people that lost jobs or did not... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April’s employment slump was only half as bad as feared. While the worst for GDP seems to be behind us, the unemployment rate could still rise in May, as the 1.7 million people who have dropped out of... 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The loss of 20.5 million jobs in April was largely as expected based on the tsunami of jobless claims and, although the unemployment rate only climbed to 14.7%, slightly below expectations, that was... 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) Wage growth slowed sharply in March and with the unemployment rate set to rise considerably over the coming months we think it will turn deeply negative before long. 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
GDP to rise from May as provinces start re-opening There are signs that activity was already rebounding in the second half of April and this week some provinces began the slow process of re-opening. It is likely to be a long time before most... 6th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The small rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in New Zealand in Q2 largely predates the impact of Covid-19 on the New Zealand economy. We expect the unemployment rate to surge in Q2 as the lockdown... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Unemployment lower, inflation higher than expected At the end of a data-heavy week, we have learnt that the euro-zone economy slumped as much as expected in Q1, but unemployment rose much less than anticipated in March. Meanwhile, the highlights of... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Catastrophe We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by between 20 and 25 million in April, with the unemployment rate surging to between 15% and 20%. That would be an unprecedented loss of jobs in a... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) Italy’s economy experienced a bigger contraction than the euro-zone average in Q1. And the closure of non-essential businesses at the end of March means that it is set for a much deeper downturn in Q2... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), HICP (Apr.), Unemp. (Mar.) The blizzard of depressing economic data released this morning confirms that the euro-zone economy was in freefall at the end of March, with GDP dropping by a record amount throughout the region. This... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Consumer confidence sank to a record low in April. That lends further credence to the view that a consumption-led plunge in economic activity is underway this quarter. We are forecasting a 12% q/q... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much will labour markets suffer? The coronavirus crisis is likely to cause unemployment rates to jump by 5%-points or so across most of the region in Q2 and we think the labour market fallout could be much worse in Turkey. However... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage subsidies to temper surge in unemployment Most of the fresh spending in PM Abe’s fiscal package will not provide meaningful support to employment. But as was the case during the financial crisis, the government’s employment adjustment fund... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
