Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The further rise in employment, the decline in the unemployment rate, and the sharp rebound in wage growth in January all reinforce our view that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 225,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January suggests that employment benefitted from the unseasonably mild weather (it was the fifth warmest January on record), with the construction sector... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of coronavirus on industry, workstyle reforms While the coronavirus is already hurting tourism, China’s intensified efforts to contain the virus have presented another potential obstacle for the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, more companies... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) With the unemployment rate set to rise, we expect the softness of wage growth in December to continue into 2020. We are forecasting a disappointing 0.2% increase in labour cash earnings this year. 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in New Zealand all but ensures that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold in February. And given that we forecast employment growth to rise in 2020, we think... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) While consumer spending remained subdued in December following October’s sales tax hike, the continued resilience of the labour market suggests that this has yet to discourage firms from hiring new... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth accelerating, but revisions a spoiler Our model suggests that non-farm payroll growth will accelerate to 185,000 in January, from 145,000. The overall tone of the report will not be as positive, however, with the annual benchmark... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.), Unemp. (Dec.) Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell to its... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not off the hook yet The further fall in the unemployment rate in December should convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 4th February. But the Bank will probably downgrade... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s wiggle room won’t last The improvement in the labour market in December alongside the surge in retail sales in November should be enough to keep the RBA on the sidelines in February. But we think weak economic activity will... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Dec.) The fall in the unemployment rate to a nine-month low shows that monetary and fiscal stimulus is starting to work and reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates. 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in November suggests the labour market has turned a corner after the weakness in Q3. That could help to convince the Monetary Policy Committee to hold off... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
