Huge CERB payouts point to stronger recovery The Canada Emergency Response Benefit has paid out far more than we expected and household income was probably broadly unchanged in the second quarter. Together with the confirmation today that the... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The surge in nominal hourly labour costs growth in Q1 primarily reflects a collapse in hours worked as lockdowns restricted economic activity at the end of the quarter. This is likely to be repeated... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr./May) The remarkably small rise in unemployment in April suggests that the unemployment rate may not increase quite as far as we had anticipated. Even so, bigger rises are almost certainly on the way as the... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) State-led infrastructure construction jumped last month and pushed up growth in fixed asset investment and industrial production. Meanwhile, growth in services activity turned positive and suggests... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further signs of improvement in Korea Despite the sharp rise in the unemployment rate last month, there are signs that the Korean labour market has turned a corner. This adds to evidence that the economy has now bottomed out. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Employment gains to be far larger in June and July The unexpected 290,000 rise in employment in May was driven by Quebec, where restrictions on activity were lifted early in the month. As the other three most populous provinces lifted restrictions... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Decline in Italian unemployment will soon reverse As the crisis in Italy escalated, record numbers of disillusioned jobseekers dropped out of the labour force, causing the unemployment rate to fall. Now that the lockdown is being lifted and activity... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How did we get employment so badly wrong? The unexpected 2.5 million rebound in nonfarm payroll employment in May, against a consensus expectation of a 7.5 million decline, has generated a lot of speculation that the figures were either... 9th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Wage growth turned negative in April at the height of efforts to contain the virus, and we expect wages to fall further over the coming months. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The surprise 2.5 million rise in payroll employment last month indicates that the process of rehiring began sooner than the jobless claims figures suggested. With more states moving to loosen their... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (May) The 290,000 increase in employment bodes well for GDP in May, particularly with hours worked increasing at an even faster rate. Employment is likely to rise by even more in June as further... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower benefits won’t prevent rebound in spending The government has said it will delay the Budget Update until July so it can reassess the eligibility of the JobKeeper scheme. Reducing the payments for part-time workers could save the government... 5th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Employment income to rebound in H2 Many firms have furloughed employees during the state of emergency and stopped paying wages. But with the economy now opening up again and the government’s employment subsidy scheme starting to be... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone and Germany Unemployment (Apr./May) The remarkably small increase in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of the government job subsidy schemes and an exodus from the labour force in Italy. We suspect that the unemployment... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
