Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy outlook diverging The New Zealand unemployment rate fell in Q4 and our labour market suite showed an even sharper tightening in the labour market. That’s one reason why we don’t expect the RBNZ to cut rates and why we... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4. 2020) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% in New Zealand means the rate is already past the peak and we expect the labour market to continue to tighten throughout 2021. 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (December) The stability of the euro-zone’s unemployment rate at just 8.3% in December highlights once again the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the pandemic. And as this support... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market having a remarkably good crisis The labour market has been remarkably strong since the onset of the pandemic. And even if the unemployment rate does rise to 6.5% by the end of this year, as we expect, the government would probably... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) While industrial production and capital goods shipments fell in December, firms’ ultra-upbeat production forecasts for January support our view that GDP will rise this quarter. Meanwhile, the... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market treading water We estimate that non-farm payroll employment was broadly unchanged in January, but the recent fiscal support and drop-back in new virus cases suggest the labour market recovery will resume soon. 28th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The rise in the unemployment rate in November is another step up on the climb towards the 6.5% peak we expect by the end of the year. But with the rollout of vaccines going well, the jobless rate may... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Labour market scarring may prompt extension of QE Our base case remains that the RBA will end quantitative easing in April. However, one risk to that forecast is the rising share of long-term unemployment. 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two risks to our recovery hopes Rumours of tax rises in the Budget in March and speculation that the population has shrunk sharply both threaten our view that the economy will eventually enjoy a quick and complete recovery from the... 22nd January 2021 · 6 mins read
