US Economics Weekly Not the quiet first week back we were all hoping for Although we think that markets are still over-estimating the potential for additional large-scale fiscal stimulus this year, the Democrats’ unexpected victories in both Georgia Senate run-off... 8th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The drop in employment in December would have been even larger were it not for the early timing of the survey reference week. With further restrictions imposed across the country since December’s... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 140,000 drop in non-farm payrolls was due to a plunge in leisure and hospitality employment, as bars and restaurants across the country were forced to close in response to the surge in coronavirus... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov. 2020) While wage growth weakened sharply in November it should recover strongly this year as overtime hours and bonuses recover and the labour market begins to tighten again. 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The recovery in consumer confidence flipped into reverse in December amid surging coronavirus infections. We think confidence will deteriorate further this year as tighter restrictions damage economic... 6th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why... 5th January 2021 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview New restrictions will drive renewed payroll losses We estimate that non-farm payrolls fell by 100,000 in December, the first decline since April. 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) The fall in the unemployment rate to 6.8% in November leaves it on track to fall to 6% by the middle of next year and is consistent with our view that the RBA won’t expand quantitative easing any... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in employment in October shows that the government’s furlough scheme has minimised the labour market damage from COVID-19 so far and provides encouragement that there... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in employment in October shows that the government’s furlough scheme has minimised the labour market damage from COVID-19 so far and provides encouragement that there... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
