Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Mar. 2021) The rebound in industrial production and the sharp drop in the unemployment rate in March are consistent with our view that the economy held up much better than most had anticipated during the second... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) Employment growth in the three-months to March was positive in almost all metros, but those in southern states tended to be the better performers. With Miami’s hospitality sector performing... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Mar.) The continued tightening of the labour market in March means that a further extension of quantitative easing isn't a done deal, but amid weak wage growth and inflation we still expect the RBA to press... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% in February despite tighter virus measures being tightened, highlighting the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The better than expected 916,000 rebound in non-farm payrolls in March still leaves employment 8.4 million below its pre-pandemic peak from just over a year ago but, with the vaccination program... 2nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Booming housing & labour markets The RBA and APRA seem to be washing their hands of responsibility for skyrocketing house prices. But we think the likely surge in credit growth in the months ahead means that APRA will be forced to... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (Feb. 2021) The strong rise in retail sales in February to their highest level since September 2019 supports our view that the economy just about avoided a contraction in Q1. And while the unemployment rate was... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Central bank mission creep There have been several cases of central bank mission creep in recent months, with policy remits widening to cover areas other than consumer price inflation. The Bank of England is now helping to... 29th March 2021 · 15 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Easing restrictions to drive acceleration in jobs growth We expect the labour market recovery to have kicked into a higher gear in March, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 700,000. 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Will demographic changes boost inflationary pressures? The rapid growth of the global labour supply in the past few decades looks set to give way to a period of much weaker growth. Some argue that this will reverse the decline in inflation seen in recent... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Deferring retirement would barely lift employment China’s statutory retirement ages are low. Raising them, as the Five-Year Plan proposes, would make the pension system more affordable but it wouldn’t make an appreciable difference to the ongoing... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market doesn’t mean RBA will tighten The stronger than expected labour market data will have been a nice surprise to the RBA with the unemployment rate now below its year-end forecast. But we had always expected the unemployment rate to... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
