Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2022 could exacerbate inflationary pressures The government looks set to use its 2022 budget next week to outline a further increase in spending. While this will be modest in the context of the stimulus provided during the pandemic, it comes at... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The fiscal cost of the Ukraine war We estimate that euro-zone governments’ fiscal deficits will be around 1% higher than expected this year, as a result of the war in Ukraine, mostly due to government subsidies for energy, support for... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Shift towards higher taxes and spending is here to stay Far from reducing the tax burden, the Chancellor is set to preside over the biggest tax share of GDP since 1949 under Clement Attlee's post-war Labour government. So if Rishi Sunak wants to be... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Fiscal Statement – Big political bang, smaller economic boost The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, provided more support to the economy than we had expected over the next few years in today’s Spring Fiscal Statement, but he could have gone further in 2022/23. Instead... 23rd March 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect fiscal restraint to prevent Gilt yields from rising The yield of 10-year Gilts dropped back today after the UK Chancellor announced a relatively modest support package in the Spring Fiscal Statement, but we still expect it to rise between now and the... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Inflation to fall sharply in H2 While the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil mean energy prices will remain elevated and push headline inflation above 8% in March, it will still fall sharply later this year. Energy... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Market-implied policy tightening could topple housing The surge in interest rate expectations is a key risk to housing. We recently set out how, due to the much larger share of variable rate mortgages than before the pandemic, the Bank of Canada would... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Spring Fiscal Statement 2022 Checklist We are resending this checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Spring Statement. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Feb.) Notwithstanding the deterioration in the public finances in February, large revisions to the back data mean that borrowing in 2021/22 is on track to undershoot the OBR’s October 2021 forecast by a... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget to target inflation while reducing deficits The New Zealand government this week reduced fuel excise taxes by 25 cents per litre for three months. And Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has indicated the Australian Budget due on the 29 th... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
