Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too much of a good thing? The R&D intensity of China’s economy continued to rise last year and is converging toward the levels of advanced economies. But that’s not necessarily a good thing for a country with much lower... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Union Budget For watchers of India’s economy, next week is one of the most significant of the year as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget for FY22/23 on Tuesday. Unusually, the fiscal... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Russia-Ukraine, Oman subsidies Further reports that Egypt’s government is stepping up the pace of structural reforms are promising for the country’s longer-term growth prospects. For the Gulf economies, Russia-Ukraine tensions... 27th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be... 27th January 2022 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity holds up as Omicron peaks The rapid spread of the Omicron variant in India has caused economic activity to weaken so far in 2022. But the damage has been much less severe than during the previous two outbreaks. Perhaps... 27th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth could prompt faster policy tightening The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed firms’ wage expectations at a record high, which suggests that wage growth could accelerate to far above the pre-pandemic norm this... 25th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent... 25th January 2022 · 49 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Dec.) Stronger tax revenues were just enough to offset big rises in debt interest costs in December. But we don’t expect this to last: further rises in inflation will mean borrowing soon overshoots the OBR... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to... 24th January 2022 · 19 mins read
