US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) Commercial real estate debt growth slowed in December, probably reflecting a softening in investment activity on the back of renewed lockdowns. This points to a similarly slow start to 2021 before the... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update REITs suggest limited upside to property values Recent movements in the REIT market add weight to our view that structural factors, rather than cyclical ones, will determine the outlook for property markets over the coming years. In turn... 14th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hub and spoke model not the future of offices Many commentators are arguing that firms will shift towards a “hub and spoke” model following the pandemic. But we think the arguments for this approach are not as strong as they first seem, and that... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property returns to turn positive in 2021 After hitting a decade-low in 2020, we think that commercial property returns will turn positive in 2021, but any improvement is likely to be modest. This reflects the delayed recovery in the economy... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about Spanish office rents? Our forecast is for a cumulative fall in Spanish prime office rents over the next two years. But we think this view is justified as occupier demand is likely to improve only gradually, meaning space... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity set for a muted recovery in 2021 Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK)... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for 2021 For 2021 we highlight five key calls. In particular we expect a year of two halves in which yields initially rise, but end 2021 close to their current levels. Retail and office rent falls will... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key commercial property trends for 2021 Although the rollout of effective vaccines should allow economic activity to rebound in the second half of the year, we do not think that European property markets will bounce back quickly. 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Consistent with soft investment activity and a return to more regular loan repayments, net lending was negative for the second consecutive month in November. Looking ahead, we think a weaker near-term... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural changes threaten the hotel recovery The hotel sector has been hit hardest by the virus, and we expect its recovery will be slower than the other sectors. And, even when vaccines pave the way for an improvement in occupancy, structural... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Property recovery to prove gradual The positive news on the vaccine has improved the economic outlook and should allow output in the Swiss and Scandinavian economies to recover to their pre-virus levels in late 2021. This will support... 17th December 2020 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov.) Commercial real estate debt growth accelerated in November. However, renewed lockdowns in many states may slow the recovery in investment activity, limiting debt growth in the next few months. 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Structural changes will keep office and retail in the doldrums While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than... 11th December 2020 · 23 mins read
