US Commercial Property Update Property valuations look solid despite rising bond yields A few weeks ago, we nudged up our Treasury yield forecasts for year-end 2021 and 2022, to 1.5% and 1.75% respectively. While intra-day yields exceeded 1.6% at one point last week, we don’t expect a... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update The long view of property In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The long view of property In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising Treasury yields squeezing property valuations On the back of rising Treasury yields, property valuations took their first hit in eight quarters during Q4. And, with Treasury yields climbing higher since, it is likely that valuation scores will... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Two more years of underperformance for malls Permanent increases in certain types of online sales will mean that regional and super-regional malls underperform the other retail sub-sectors for at least the next two years. Our forecasts point to... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Further pain in store for retail While virus restrictions have weighed on retail markets across Europe, the hit has been particularly severe in CEE. Indeed, core-CEE prime retail rents fell by an eye-watering 20% last year, the... 23rd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Investor demand returning Office and industrial yields edged lower in Q4 as the recovery in Scandinavian investment took hold. However, the pandemic continued to weigh on occupiers, with retail rents declining further in most... 22nd February 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook COVID-19 scarring slow to heal Effective vaccines provide a path out of the COVID-19 economic slump, but commercial property will be slow to benefit. On the bright side, the real estate downturn has been milder than expected and we... 19th February 2021 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Sector and city performance to remain uneven Fiscal and monetary stimulus have kept economic growth solid and will support a continued recovery. While this bodes well for occupier demand, structural factors have weighed heavily on the office and... 18th February 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook 2020s unlikely to be a rerun of the 1930s and 2000s We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s... 16th February 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Pandemic widens sectoral divergences Despite the sharp hit to economic activity, euro-zone prime commercial property values were comparatively unscathed last year, falling by just 2%. However, this hides large differences in performance... 16th February 2021 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) Commercial real estate debt growth picked up in January, seeing its strongest rise since April. That likely reflects a sharp increase in investment deals completed at the tail-end of 2020. While this... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Calling time on Italian prime retail rental growth We think that prolonged weakness in domestic and foreign spending on prime high streets in Italy will add to pressure on rental affordability, triggering rental falls this year. However, a less... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update COVID-19 legacy will be a weak property recovery The spread of performance between UK commercial property sectors hit an all-time high in 2020, with retail spiralling into a GFC-like slump, while industrial barely flinched. This gap will narrow, but... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague prime pricing supportive of industrial yield falls We think that past movements in Czech bond yields mean that they are less appropriate to use in our valuation calculations. Using alternative bond benchmarks, re-calculated metrics support the view... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
