UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for housing in a post-COVID world Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs... 9th September 2020 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Update When it comes to retail, bigger is no longer better Retail malls are set to fare badly in this downturn as Americans avoid enclosed spaces and adopt online shopping practices. But regional and super-regional malls, which were already underperforming... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Scenarios for the effect of remote working on US offices Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the... 24th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations need to improve further to entice investors Property valuations improved substantially in Q2, on the back of a huge 120 bps drop in equities earnings yields. However, while the office, retail and apartment sectors look undervalued on our... 20th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jul.) July’s increase in real estate debt was mostly driven by residential loans, but commercial property debt also ticked higher. However, with investment totals weak in Q2, this could simply reflect the... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least... 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2020) As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy about industrial? The strength of industrial take-up in Q2 was driven by a ramp-up in delivery capacity, particularly by supermarkets and Amazon. Along with the continued upward trend in the MSCI monthly data, this... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jun.) Total debt secured against real estate nudged lower again in June. More timely weekly data point to signs that residential lending has already begun to grow again as housing demand has surged, but we... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS bondholders face mounting risks CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens retail: best of a bad bunch While the quicker than anticipated pick-up in high frequency data has meant that the fall in Greek economic activity is likely smaller than initially feared, retail rents are still set to drop sharply... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q2 2020) With the largest fall in occupier demand expected in New York City and San Francisco, and completions staying relatively strong in Los Angeles and SF, we expect these cities to see the largest rental... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are forecasters now too pessimistic about retail rents? The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts revealed sharper than expected downgrades for the next few years, largely based on revisions to retail rents. Our views are now above this consensus, though we don’t... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update How has office output fared? Even though working from home has meant business as usual for many office occupiers, weak activity elsewhere has still caused euro-zone office output to fall. With the economic recovery expected to be... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
