US Commercial Property Update Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while... 4th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in June from its two-year high last month, but at 52.2 remains in expansionary territory. Both the commercial and housing balances retreated, with the... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The shape of Labour's housing policy The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted... 2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth pessimism appears misplaced The consensus is still downbeat on the outlook for retail rents, with growth expected to underperform even the struggling office sector. But with a decent consumer recovery on the horizon we think... 2nd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Benelux prime office rent outperformance to wane A soft start to 2024 for office demand and weak jobs outlook in Benelux suggest that recent rental outperformance will not last. With supply also rising, we think prime rental growth will slow to... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why are residential yields so low? Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Strong US dollar to weigh on hotel recovery; West to trail After a strong recovery post-pandemic, momentum in hotel revenue growth is likely to remain subdued over the next few years. With a stronger US dollar hindering the revival of the tourist industry, we... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime... 25th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why we think yield compression will be limited With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Southern metros set to outperform The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots... 20th June 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May 2024) The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year. 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jun. 24) Capital values are close to bottoming out in most sectors as yields have stabilised. However, with no yield compression and moderating rental growth the recovery will be weak by past standards, not... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
