UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023) The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial to join offices as worst-performing sector We are downbeat on industrial total returns over the next two years compared to the consensus because of our relatively pessimistic views on both rents and cap rates. And we think the risks to long... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec) Net lending on commercial real estate (CRE) by banks was positive again in December, rising by $4.2bn in the month. (See Table 1.) That said, the monthly change was broadly in line with the average in... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental slowdown set to continue in 2024 The resilience of euro-zone rental growth last year surprised us. But our analysis indicates that better-than-expected economic activity explained much of that strength and as recession looms in 2024... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Can regional industrial rents outperform? In contrast to most of the past 20 years, RoUK industrial rental growth has almost matched the South East over the past couple of quarters. But that is unlikely to last. The boost to demand for big... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update No sign of a flight to quality in office pricing, yet Much has been talked about a ‘flight to quality’ in the office sector given the structural shift to hybrid working. However, while there is evidence of this in relative rental performance, a look at... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italy retail rent growth to slow, but continues to lead The surge in Italian prime retail rents over the past year is likely to give way in 2024, as inflation falls back and consumer spending stagnates. But the strong fundamentals that have supported this... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024 Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to stabilise, if not shine Stubbornly high inflation pushed risk-free rates, and yields, somewhat higher than we had anticipated by the end of 2023. By contrast, rental growth proved surprisingly resilient even as the economy... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2024 Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing balance, while the commercial reading fell further. Looking ahead, we... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Nov.) Total employment growth in November across our 30 metros was weak compared with the rest of 2023, growing by 0.3% 3m/3m once seasonally-adjusted. On average, office-based jobs contracted for the... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update A look back on our key calls for 2023 While SVB’s collapse in March and sharper rises in interest rates led to larger-than-expected falls in commercial real estate (CRE) values, our expectations for sector and regional winners were... 3rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls 1704904200 We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.
