The US dollar was little changed following the surprisingly weak August payrolls data, despite a small rise in US government bond yields. It looks set to end another week lower against most currencies, leaving the trade-weighted dollar near its lowest …
3rd September 2021
The US dollar gave back much of its gains from last week, as appetite for risk recovered and Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech today provided some relatively dovish guidance on the path for Fed interest rate hikes. Nonetheless, we think that this …
27th August 2021
There was a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of commodities prices this week, with across-the-board gains as risk appetite picked up and the US dollar eased back . Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was cautious about imminent Fed tapering at the Jackson Hole …
The US dollar has risen sharply this week, reaching its highest level of the year as continued fears about the spread of the “delta” variant and further evidence of growing risks in China (around its economic slowdown, the widening regulatory crackdown on …
20th August 2021
Commodity prices mostly fell this week on the back of a stronger US dollar as well as mounting concerns over the demand outlook. China’s July activity and spending data, published on Monday, were weaker than consensus forecasts, and the ongoing spread of …
The UN’s latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report warned that ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions are a ‘code red for humanity’, which could give further momentum to the green energy transition . This transition primarily …
13th August 2021
The US dollar looks set to end the week little changed against most currencies, as US inflation data – this week’s main data release – failed to push up the currency further. Next week, the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting may shed more light on …
The disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF later this month is a boon for some Frontier Markets that face very high borrowing costs. But beyond this, it is hard to find many positives for Frontiers. The spread of the Delta variant, …
10th August 2021
The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data . With Fed officials earlier this week suggesting that several more months of …
6th August 2021
Concerns surrounding the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 were the main driver of prices this week, but the impact on prices was far from uniform. Not surprisingly, oil prices slumped as many countries in Asia, including China, tightened travel …
Following a strong run over the past month, the US dollar has weakened across the board this week after some softer-than-expected US data and a non-committal FOMC. Next week’s key data releases include the ISM manufacturing survey and the all-important …
30th July 2021
The recent bounce in commodity prices continued this week, helped by the ongoing depreciation in the US dollar and a series of risks on the supply side which are rearing their head . Most notably, a spell of cold weather in Brazil has dampened the supply …
Oil prices have been on something of a round trip this week – falling at the start of the week as OPEC+ finally agreed to a new output agreement and the ongoing spread of the Delta variant fuelled concerns over the global economic outlook, and then …
23rd July 2021
While the US dollar has fallen back a little against most currencies in the second half of the week as the sharp sell-off in risky assets and currencies on Monday was reversed, it looks set to end the week slightly stronger, continuing its strong run …
While the US dollar rose sharply after Tuesday’s exceptionally strong inflation print, that was partly offset by Fed Chair Powell’s relatively dovish comments in his testimony to Congress. But overall, the greenback continues to trade on the front foot as …
16th July 2021
Reports that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have reached a compromise deal over oil production quotas support our forecast that oil prices will end the year lower . Admittedly, the deal is yet to be agreed by OPEC+. But even if the group fails to reach a formal …
The oil market will probably struggle to find direction in the coming weeks until there is some resolution to the impasse created by the failure to reach unanimous agreement at the last monthly OPEC+ meeting. There remains the very real risk of a …
9th July 2021
Although it has fallen back a bit today after China delivered a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirements, the US dollar has otherwise continued to appreciate against most currencies. The dollar’s strength appears increasingly driven by concerns about …
The US dollar is ending the week stronger against most currencies, although it has fallen back a little this afternoon despite the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report . While that reaction is perhaps a bit puzzling, the bigger picture is that …
2nd July 2021
We expect strong growth in oil demand this quarter as virus-related travel restrictions are lifted in most of the largest consuming countries . At the same time, supply will remain relatively constrained even if, as we think likely, OPEC+ is gradually …
Most commodity prices recouped some of their post-FOMC losses this week. Investor concerns surrounding Fed tightening have seemingly eased, which weighed on the dollar. At the same time, news that a bipartisan agreement has been reached over a US …
25th June 2021
The US dollar seems set to end the week slightly weaker, but has held much of its gains following last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. With increasing focus on the prospects for monetary tightening globally, next week’s employment and survey data in the US …
The FOMC’s optimistic assessment of the outlook and the significant shift up in its “dot plot” projections has sent the US dollar soaring over the past couple of days. We have brought forward our own forecast for the first Fed hike (see here), and our …
18th June 2021
Commodity prices fell sharply this week following a more hawkish than expected Fed meeting and a disappointing batch of activity data out of China . Both developments are in line with our forecast of higher real yields and a stronger dollar in the US, as …
Although Treasury yields somewhat surprisingly fell after the larger-than-expected rise in inflation last month in the US, the dollar is ending the week slightly stronger against most currencies. Attention next week will focus on the FOMC meeting, and …
11th June 2021
The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week . However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May suggests that commodity demand there is coming off the …
In another see-saw week for FX markets, the US dollar again looks to be ending it broadly flat after the key non-farm payroll figure proved somewhat weaker than consensus expectations. Next week’s US inflation print looks set to continue the data …
4th June 2021
In what proved to be one of the shortest OPEC+ meetings ever, the group agreed this week to stick to its previously planned increase in output in July . Oil prices rose sharply on the back of the announcement, with Brent now trading above $70 per barrel. …
While strong data in the US have provided some support for the dollar, it remains broadly flat on the week. With economic recoveries well underway in most developed markets, focus remains on what the latest data can tell us about the relative prospects …
28th May 2021
OPEC+ is set to meet next Tuesday, when we expect the group to agree to continue with its incremental increases in production through to July . We think it unlikely that the group will address the thornier issue of the ongoing rise in Iran’s production …
In a fairly quiet week for currency markets, the minutes from the FOMC’s April meeting proved the highlight. The US dollar rose sharply on the news that at least some Fed officials are keen to start ‘talking about talking about tapering.’ While that rally …
21st May 2021
The prices of most commodities dropped back again this week as global equity markets struggled to make ground and virus cases in parts of Asia continued to rise. Meanwhile, reports emerged that good progress had been made in negotiating a new nuclear deal …
Extended delays to vaccine supply from India to the Covax facility will keep rollout in many Frontier Markets stuck in first gear. Social distancing measures will have to stay in place for longer, holding back economic recoveries, and the risk of renewed …