Signs that price rallies are beginning to falter

The prices of most commodities dropped back again this week as global equity markets struggled to make ground and virus cases in parts of Asia continued to rise. Meanwhile, reports emerged that good progress had been made in negotiating a new nuclear deal with Iran, which weighed on oil prices. With no major data releases scheduled next week, the focus – at least for the oil market – will remain on the talks with Iran. They are due to resume on Tuesday, and reports from this week suggest that negotiators could strike a deal that would pave the way for sanctions on Iran to be lifted. Depending on the timescale, the prospect of higher production and exports from Iran may prompt us to revise down our oil price forecasts. Otherwise, investors will probably be closely monitoring developments on the virus front, especially in the parts of Asia where cases have risen in recent weeks.