Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Home purchase demand remains low as rates ease back Mortgage applications for home purchase saw a slight recovery over the course of June as mortgage interest rates eased back. But demand remains depressed compared to its pre-COVID-19 level and a further …
6th July 2022
House price growth starts to slow, and will eventually turn negative House price growth is finally showing signs of slowing, in line with measures of housing market activity which peaked at the start of the year. Soaring mortgage rates are shutting some …
28th June 2022
New home sales show a surprise increase New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home sales are not …
24th June 2022
Existing home sales on a steady downward track as mortgage rates rise Surging mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in May to their lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns two years ago. And with mortgage rates set to …
21st June 2022
Housing starts falling rapidly as higher mortgage rates curb demand Housing starts in May recorded their largest month-on-month decline since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. A fall in housing demand due to higher mortgage rates is occurring at the …
16th June 2022
Mortgage demand sees further falls even as interest rates edge back A small fall in mortgage rates over the second half of May failed to arrest a downward trend in mortgage demand, with applications for home purchase ending the month at a two-year low. …
1st June 2022
House price growth hits new records, but will slow rapidly from here House prices surged in March, with Case-Shiller reporting record gains on both a monthly and annual basis. That reflects the jump in housing demand seen over the turn of the year, when …
31st May 2022
New home sales drop to a two-year low New home sales dropped sharply to a two-year low in April. But while rising mortgage rates are weighing on sales, the drop looks large given the fall in mortgage applications seen so far and may be revised up over the …
24th May 2022
Buyer traffic drops sharply as higher mortgage rates bite Existing home sales fell once again in April, although for now they remain above their pre-COVID-19 level. But, with mortgage rates set to stay high and credit conditions unlikely to loosen …
19th May 2022
Housing starts drop back as higher interest rates curb demand Housing starts dropped by a marginal 0.2% m/m in April, driven by the single-family sector which also saw building permits fall for the second month in a row. Housing demand is faltering due to …
18th May 2022
Rise in mortgage rates dampens home purchase demand The sharp rise in mortgage rates over the past couple of months, to a 12-year high of 5.37% in the middle of April, is now weighing on mortgage demand. Home purchase applications dropped to their lowest …
4th May 2022
Month-on-month house price growth hits record high Month-on-month house price growth rose to a record high in February, as households desperate to buy before interest rates increased bid up the price of those few homes for sale. But the surge in mortgage …
26th April 2022
Higher mortgage rates weigh on home sales Surging mortgage interest rates pushed March existing home sales down to their lowest since the height of COVID-19-restirctions in mid-2020. We expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next year, and that …
20th April 2022
Starts rise but face headwinds from materials shortages Housing starts rose a by a marginal 0.3% m/m in March, driven by the volatile multifamily sector. Single-family starts saw a small fall, as did building permits. While we expect new home demand to be …
19th April 2022
Mortgage rates rise toward 5% Mortgage rates continue their upward climb in March, reaching a 40-month high of 4.9% by the end of the month. As yet, that has done little to cut home purchase demand. Indeed, applications saw a marginal increase last month. …
6th April 2022
House price growth starts 2022 on a strong note, but will slow this year The rebound in house price inflation seen at the end of last year continued into 2022, with annual growth on the Case-Shiller measure moving back above 19%. But housing market …
29th March 2022
Decline in new home sales not the start of a downward trend New home sales fell for the second month in a row in February, as builders limited them to catch-up with the backlog of homes under construction. Higher mortgage rates will act to cool overall …
23rd March 2022
Home sales fall back as higher rates bite Existing home sales slipped in February, more than reversing January’s surprise increase. And the Fed’s first move on interest rates this week reinforces our expectation that existing sales will remain soft in the …
18th March 2022
Starts rise but face headwinds from materials shortages Housing starts rose by 5.7% m/m in February following two months of declines. While a tight inventory of existing homes is supporting homebuilder confidence, shortages of labour and materials will …
17th March 2022
Mortgage demand drops, but mortgage rates now set to fall back Mortgage rates rose further in February, reaching their highest since May 2019. That weighed on mortgage demand, with applications for home purchase falling to their lowest level since the …
2nd March 2022
New home sales dip, but lack of existing home inventory will support demand After two strong months new home sales edged back in January and may dip further early in the year as the surge in borrowers who sought to buy prior to further interest rate rises …
24th February 2022
House price growth records strong end to 2021 Annual house price growth held steady in December, with prices up 18.8% over 2021. But with mortgage rates now at their highest since July 2019, affordability constraints will soon cut the amount potential …
22nd February 2022
Home sales surge as buyers rush to lock in low financing costs Existing home sales jumped 6.7% m/m in January, but that gain is likely to prove short-lived. Strong activity over the turn of the year is due to households rushing to buy to lock in a low …
18th February 2022
Single-family starts set for another, albeit more modest, rise in 2022 Single-family starts fell for the second month in a row in January, but a rise in building permits to a one-year high means they will soon resume their upward trend. New home sales …
17th February 2022
Borrowers rush to secure a mortgage before rates rise further Mortgage rates rose to a two-year high of 3.78% in the last week of January. As yet that has done little to cool home purchase demand, with applications increasing to a one-year high. But a lot …
2nd February 2022
Lack of existing home inventory drives buyers to uncompleted new homes New home sales had a strong end to the year, as the record low number of existing homes on the market drove the sale of homes which were still under construction. That lack of existing …
26th January 2022
Stage set for a slowdown in house price growth Case-Shiller reported annual house price growth falling for the third consecutive month in November. And with rising mortgage rates set to stretch affordability to its worst since 2008, we expect annual house …
25th January 2022
Home sales dip in December, and are set for further declines in 2022 Despite a 4.6% m/m fall in existing home sales in December, 2021 marked an impressive year for existing home sales, with sales 8% higher compared to 2020. But looking ahead, a backdrop …
20th January 2022
Strong demand keeps housing starts, if not completions, elevated Single-family starts edged back in December, but they saw a 12.1% y/y rise in 2021 overall as strong housing demand and a lack of existing homes for sale supported new home sales. Rising …
19th January 2022
Mortgage rates resume their upward trend After a brief dip due to concerns over the Omicron variant, both the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate have since resumed their upward trends, with the latter rising to a nine-month high by the end …
5th January 2022
Soaring house prices mean cheaper new homes are no longer available The healthy rise in new home sales in November primarily reflected a downward revision to the previous month’s reading. Nevertheless, new sales activity is still elevated compared to its …
23rd December 2021
Sales resurgence pushes inventory to a record low Existing home sales continued to climb higher in November, leaving sales just short of their peak last year. But we expect a tight inventory and stretched affordability as mortgage rates rise to weigh on …
22nd December 2021
Housing starts bounce back, but so do lumber prices Single-family housing starts rebounded in November, following a weak four months. While strong new home demand, limited inventory and surging house prices will incentivise builders to increase …
16th December 2021
Home purchase demand surges even as mortgage rates rise A rise in mortgage rates to an eight-month high of 3.31% by the end of November failed to dampen home purchase demand, which surged to a nine-month high. The drop in 10-year Treasury yields from the …
1st December 2021
House price growth begins to slow Annual house price growth fell for the first time in 16-months in September, and stretched affordability means it should continue to slow. It is too soon to say what impact the arrival of the Omicron variant will have on …
30th November 2021
Healthier inventory to support new home sales The marginal improvement in new home sales in October was flattered by a downward revision to September’s data, and the bigger picture is that sales have been fairly steady since May. Looking ahead housing …
24th November 2021
Home sales to fall back slowly Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we expect sales will fall back …
22nd November 2021
Single-family starts drop again, but signs of hope in permit data Single-family starts dropped for the fourth consecutive month in October to a 15-month low. But we expect starts will soon turn the corner. New home demand is strong, lumber prices have …
17th November 2021
Housing demand dips as mortgage rates rise Mortgage rates rose to an eight-month high in October, which drove a significant decline in refinancing activity. But home purchase demand saw a much smaller dip, and we expect it will trend down only gradually …
3rd November 2021
House prices growth starts to cool The FHFA reported that annual house price inflation declined in August for the first time since May 2020. Rising mortgage rates mean that slowdown will continue, and we expect it to fall back to 3% y/y by end-2022. …
26th October 2021
Home sales rise, but improvement will be short-lived The 7.0% m/m rise in existing home sales in September does not mark the start of an upward trend in activity. With mortgage rates rising, inventory close to record lows and home buying sentiment at …
21st October 2021
Single-family starts flat as strong demand runs up against supply constraints Single-family starts and building permits have been stable over the past three months at around 1.1m annualised, as strong new home demand has run up against shortages of …
19th October 2021
Mortgage rates start to rise Home purchase applications rose for the first time in six months in September, even as mortgage rates increased to a 14-week high by the end of the month. But we expect a further rise in mortgage rates to around 3.5% by the …
6th October 2021
House price growth reaches new records Annual house price growth set another record in July as low mortgage rates, past stimulus payments and a tight market drove values higher. But there are tentative signs that the market is beginning to cool, and the …
28th September 2021
New home sales rise as supply improves An improvement in inventory helped new home sales rise for the second consecutive month in August. Admittedly, overall housing demand has eased in recent months and a rise in mortgage rates argues against a rebound …
24th September 2021
Home sales drop back as booming prices shut out first-time buyers Existing home sales dropped back in August as booming house prices and a lack of affordable inventory shut out first-time buyers. A small recovery in home purchase mortgage demand suggests …
22nd September 2021
Strong multifamily performance pushes up starts A boom in multifamily construction has supported housing starts in recent months, with multifamily building permits rising to a 31-year high. On the single-family side, homebuilders have reported strong …
21st September 2021
Record-low sentiment weighs on demand With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s 11-year high. But …
1st September 2021
House price growth surges to new high, but set for weaker H2 House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier …
31st August 2021
Supply constraints hold back new home sales After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand seen last …
24th August 2021