Single-family starts edged back in December, but they saw a 12.1% y/y rise in 2021 overall as strong housing demand and a lack of existing homes for sale supported new home sales. Rising mortgage rates will cool demand in 2022, and material and labour shortages will be a constraint for some months yet. Nevertheless, tight markets mean builders will be keen to break more ground, and we expect a further rise in single-family starts to around 1.18m annualised by end-2022.
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