The FHFA reported that annual house price inflation declined in August for the first time since May 2020. Rising mortgage rates mean that slowdown will continue, and we expect it to fall back to 3% y/y by end-2022. Meanwhile, new home sales surged to 800,000 annualised in September supported by relatively healthy inventory. We expect sales will see further modest gains and reach 880,000 by end-2022.
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