Filtered by Subscriptions: Africa Economics Use setting Africa Economics
South Africa’s fuel levy cut: round two The authorities in South Africa once again stepped in to supress the rise in local petrol prices on the back of the war in Ukraine and, while this will contain fuel price pressures in the near-term, the fiscal costs …
1st June 2022
CBN governor: in or out? Reports this week suggesting that Nigeria’s central bank (CBN) governor, Godwin Emefiele, had been sacked have subsequently been denied by officials. Even so, the rumours did no good for the CBN’s independence and, with or without …
27th May 2022
Central bank hawks ascend amid market ruffles Recent investor risk-off sentiment has pushed up sovereign dollar bond yields across Sub-Saharan Africa, fuelling debt risks further. And central banks appear to be taking note, with some policymakers turning …
20th May 2022
Monetary politics in Nigeria Presidential guidance requiring the resignation of current government officials running for Nigeria’s highest office will likely leave the central bank without a governor as he is set to contest the presidential ticket, …
13th May 2022
Green shoots in SA recovery repeatedly uprooted Recent flooding in a key province and warnings this week that power cuts could reach unprecedented levels are the latest in a long list of blows to South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly stifled any …
6th May 2022
South Africa’s ANC: reforms gaining momentum? Momentum appears to be building within South Africa’s ruling ANC party to shift towards a more private sector-led economic model. But given its track record so far, we wouldn’t hold our breath. An ANC draft …
29th April 2022
European officials have increasingly looked to Africa to replace gas supplies from Russia. In principle, the continent’s major producers like Nigeria and Angola (and in the medium term, potentially Mozambique and Tanzania) could benefit. But it’s unclear …
22nd April 2022
Floods another blow to SA’s growth momentum This week’s floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province are the latest in a series of hits to the economic recovery. Violent unrest last July dealt a heavy blow to the economy and October’s steel sector …
14th April 2022
Africa putting COVID-19 in the rear view mirror? Governments across Sub-Saharan Africa have scaled back COVID-19 restrictions in recent weeks and, despite low vaccination coverage, it seems the virus will be less disruptive to activity going forward. But …
8th April 2022
SA officials to give ground on public wages? Public sector wage negotiations will soon kick off in South Africa and there are reasons to think that officials may concede further ground to trade unions. A surging wage bill has been a key driver of the …
1st April 2022
Ghana: interest rates up, gov’t spending down The Ghanaian authorities took steps this week to shore up the cedi and tackle the poor public finances but, even though a sovereign default is not imminent, officials may eventually have to back down and turn …
25th March 2022
Nigerian economy feeling the pain from FX policies Evidence is building that Nigeria’s unorthodox exchange rate regime is fuelling inflation and increasingly damaging economic activity. Policymakers at the central bank have been reluctant to let the naira …
18th March 2022
High oil prices dashing upside risks to SA activity… The latest economic data suggest that South Africa’s recovery has gained ground, and some sectors will benefit from elevated metals prices caused by the war in Ukraine. But at a macro level, a mounting …
11th March 2022
Flies in the ointment for African oil producers’ gains Oil prices have surged this week, but Africa’s main oil exporters – Nigeria and Angola – are unlikely to reap the full benefits due to persistent oil output problems and the mounting costs of fuel …
4th March 2022
The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict for SSA Direct economic and financial ties between Sub-Saharan Africa and the economies of Russia and Ukraine are limited, but African policymakers will have to contend with the indirect repercussions of the …
25th February 2022
South Africa’s upcoming budget speech will probably contain better-than-projected fiscal results, allowing the finance minister to extend temporary spending measures without undermining near-term budget targets. But this will increase the risk of …
18th February 2022
SONA: no bonanza, but tilt to more fiscal support The economy was a key theme in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in South Africa as President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his reform drive but gave some ground to those in his …
11th February 2022
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, facing an intra-party leadership contest in December, is set to use next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) as an opportunity to drum up support. From the perspective of fiscal policy, this is likely to …
4th February 2022
Nigeria’s fuel subsidies: Don’t stop me now The announcement this week by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – instead of ending the scheme as planned – will limit inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than …
28th January 2022
A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp interest rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for the next 12-18 months are still more dovish …
21st January 2022
SA: ANC leadership electioneering kicking off Leftist factions of South Africa’s ruling ANC are already gearing up to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa in December’s leadership election and this is likely to push fiscal policy in a looser direction, …
14th January 2022
SA’s Omicron-experience bodes well for SSA Evidence is growing that South Africa’s latest virus outbreak, driven by the Omicron variant, has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This should bode well for other economies in …
7th January 2022
African officials keeping virus-fighting gloves off Three weeks after the detection of the Omicron variant in South Africa, the government is showing no signs of changing course from its approach of minimising virus-related restrictions even as COVID-19 …
17th December 2021
Virus and vaccine tales from the Omicron hotspot.. South African officials seem to be pushing vaccine take-up to curb the latest Omicron-induced virus outbreak rather than tightening restrictions on activity. With pressure building on the health system, …
10th December 2021
Lockdown 101: Lessons from South Africa The emergence of the Omicron variant has put South Africa at the centre of the world’s attention, but we know surprisingly little about how policymakers there intend to respond if the variant is as bad as feared. A …
3rd December 2021
A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial markets. A tightening of local containment measures is …
26th November 2021
SARB joining in… This week, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will hike interest rates as aggressively as those in Emerging Europe and Latin …
19th November 2021
With the monetary policy normalisation debate heating up recently in South Africa, next week’s MPC meeting is likely to be a very close call. On balance, we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet and the tightening cycle is likely …
12th November 2021
Slipping ANC support to complicate fiscal plans Next week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in South Africa is likely to provide an early signal that the government is scaling back its fiscal consolidation plans following the ruling ANC …
5th November 2021
ANC upset may bolster calls for end to austerity Local elections that take place in South Africa on Monday are unlikely to have a direct impact on macroeconomic policymaking, but a poor showing for the ruling ANC could intensify pressure on the government …
29th October 2021
Disquiet about Ghana’s debt growing The sharp rise in Ghana’s sovereign dollar bond yields this month suggests that investors are coming around to our view about the country’s worrying debt trajectory. Ghana’s dollar-denominated sovereign bond yields have …
22nd October 2021
Nigeria’s VP joining pro-market FX club Recent comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime may reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system. But there is no evidence that key …
15th October 2021
SARB readying for rate lift-off The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review (MPR) published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely to stand pat for …
8th October 2021
Full disclosure? SSA debt exposure to China Reports suggesting that many developing countries, including some in Africa, have larger external debts to China than officially reported somewhat reinforce concerns about a lack of transparency and, at the very …
1st October 2021
SSA: Vaccine woes to persist even with supply boost This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination …
24th September 2021
SA: withering commitment to fiscal consolidation Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support than their harsh austerity …
17th September 2021
South Africa: a mixed week of economic news Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3. Data on …
10th September 2021
First impressions from Zambia’s new government Zambia’s newly elected president has wasted no time to push to restore macroeconomic stability, and reassure investors. Less than two weeks into the new administration’s term, Zambian government officials are …
3rd September 2021
Politics pushing Ethiopia closer to economic brink An internal political conflict in Ethiopia is escalating with an all-out civil war no longer a remote prospect. Strains in the country’s already fragile balance sheet are growing. In recent weeks tensions …
27th August 2021
South Africa’s “BIG” plans won’t get very far The South African authorities appear to be devoting increased attention to the idea of a permanent basic income grant (“BIG”) but, in practice, such proposals are probably dead on arrival. The government …
20th August 2021
Elections key to Zambia’s economic direction This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections, and while the results have not yet been announced, we think that one way or another, the fiscal leash will probably be tightened. General elections were …
13th August 2021
South Africa: new cabinet, old problems It may take some time for the dust to settle after this week’s cabinet re-shuffle in South Africa, but one key point is that the new finance minister will face a growing challenge of stabilising public debt. …
6th August 2021
Walking the line: public finances in South Africa Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal consolidation …
30th July 2021
Vaccines and variants in Sub-Saharan Africa A boost to vaccine supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to breathe some fresh air into struggling vaccine campaigns across the region at a time when third waves are sweeping across key economies. This week …
23rd July 2021
There are signs that the worst of the violence and unrest that has gripped South Africa this week may be over. Any hit to economic activity is unlikely to be long-lasting but the risk that the government’s austerity plans are watered down has increased. …
16th July 2021
South Africa’s austerity plans on a slippery path? South Africa’s government is giving up further ground in wage negotiations with trade unions, raising the threat that the austerity plans unravel. A three-year public sector wage freeze is at the heart of …
9th July 2021
Nigeria’s oil reforms won’t be a gamechanger Nigeria’s long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) is on the verge of making into law, but it probably comes too late to propel a marked turnaround in the country’s oil sector and will not resolve many other …
2nd July 2021
Ghana: bumper harvest to support recovery Media reports suggest that Ghana may be heading for its biggest cocoa harvest in at least a decade. High rainfall and better farming practices have, according to the same reports, helped push output to its highest …
25th June 2021
South Africa: a bumpy second quarter The South African retail sales figures out this week add to the evidence that the economic recovery has been weak and bumpy during the second quarter. Retail sales dropped by 0.8% m/m in April, adding to a weak set of …
18th June 2021
Vaccinating the world: tides turning? G7 leaders meeting this week are ramping up efforts to provide more vaccines to the developing world, which could give a lift to struggling inoculation campaigns and economic recoveries in Africa. Reports suggest …
11th June 2021