Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely to stand pat for much longer. We now expect the first rate hike in January, but we still think that the tightening cycle will be slower than investors are pricing in. Meanwhile in Nigeria, budget plans for 2022 suggest that the country’s fiscal problems will persist.