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The US dollar has continued to tread water against most major currencies this week. With G10 central bankers generally sticking to their hawkish messages at the ECB’s Sintra conference and few major data releases, FX markets seem set to end the week (and …
30th June 2023
After a strong run since mid-May, the US dollar has stalled this week after a run of mixed data and Fed officials striking a cautious tone in recent speeches pushed US interest rate expectations a touch lower. The latest innovation in central bank …
2nd June 2023
For the third week running, the dollar looks primed to notch up decent gains against most other major currencies. We don’t think newsflow regarding the US debt ceiling (which has swung from positive to negative and back this week) has had much bearing on …
26th May 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing the economic and market risks around the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections on at 09:00 EDT/14:00 BST on 10 th May . Register now. Despite a bumper week for economic data, currency markets remain in limbo. …
5th May 2023
The fluctuations following the release of PMI data out of the euro-zone , UK and US look set to leave the dollar broadly unchanged against most major currencies since last Friday. These data – along with evidence in Q1 GDP data of a robust recovery in …
21st April 2023
Despite a bounce today, the US dollar is set to end the week lower against most currencies and around its weakest level, in aggregate, in a year. This partly reflects that, even though Treasury yields are set to end the week higher following today’s …
14th April 2023
This edition of the Weekly Wrap is published today in view of the Good Friday holiday tomorrow. It has been another relatively subdued week in currency markets, but despite another batch of disappointing economic data out of the US and accompanying falls …
6th April 2023
Despite making up some ground today, the dollar seems set to end the week somewhat lower against nearly all major currencies. Banking turmoil in the US and elsewhere appears to be receding (for now), with the latest Fed data confirming emergency …
31st March 2023
The US dollar had spent much of the week on the back foot amid a growing belief that banking sector issues might prove a largely US-specific problem. But that narrative, and price action, has (again) been turned on its head today as European banks …
24th March 2023
In a week dominated by headlines about bank failures and the risk of another financial crisis, resulting in extraordinary volatility in government bond markets as interest rate expectations have plunged, the foreign exchange market has been a haven of …
17th March 2023
The dollar’s sharp rally after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony to Congress on Tuesday sent US interest rate expectations soaring now looks like ancient history. Instead, after unexpected turmoil in the US banking sector and today’s …
10th March 2023
Currency markets have mostly gone sideways this week, with the US dollar set to end it a touch weaker against most other major currencies. (See Chart 1.) With both activity and price data continuing to surprise to the upside in the US , Europe and China, …
3rd March 2023
The US dollar looks set to end a third week higher against most major currencies amid mounting evidence that the US economy started the year on strong footing . In particular, hawkish FOMC minutes and a strong monthly rise in US PCE supported the dollar …
24th February 2023
Another round of robust US economic data and renewed hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials has given the US dollar a boost this week. With economic activity holding up better than we and most others had anticipated and price pressures appearing more …
17th February 2023
The US dollar is set to end the week a touch stronger against most currencies, adding to its gains last week. But, aside from the Japanese yen round-tripping on news over the next BoJ governor, it’s been a relatively quiet week for the greenback – not …
10th February 2023
The US dollar looks likely to record its largest weekly rise against other major currencies since its cyclical peak in September of last year. While investors’ dovish interpretations of announcements by the Fed, BoE, and ECB led the dollar on a roundtrip …
3rd February 2023
The US dollar looks set to end another week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Activity data released this week seemed consistent with resilience in European economies and near-recessionary conditions in the US , and we have revised our …
27th January 2023
The US dollar looks set to end the week broadly flat against most other major currencies after, by recent standards, a quiet week in FX markets. But Wednesday may have offered a glimpse of what is to come over the coming months – weak US retail sales and …
20th January 2023
The US dollar has remained under pressure as hopes of a “soft landing” continue to build and risk sentiment improves. While yesterday’s key US CPI data came out roughly in line with consensus expectations, and the market reaction was more limited than …
13th January 2023
Financial markets have begun 2023 on a cautious note, see-sawing on mixed data. Although it has dropped back today, the US dollar has started the new year on the front foot, rising against most other major currencies on the week as a whole. That said, …
6th January 2023
The BoJ’s surprise decision to widen the tolerance band around its yield curve control target earlier this week will hopefully prove the final curveball of what has been an eventful year across currency markets. The yen has surged around 3% against the …
23rd December 2022
After a choppy few days in financial markets, the US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger against most other major currencies as risk sentiment has worsened sharply in the wake of the latest round of central bank meetings. We suspect this will …
16th December 2022
Even after a small boost following the release of US PPI data today, the US dollar seems set to end this “data-light” week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. By contrast, we suspect next week will prove more volatile given the ten major …
9th December 2022
Today’s US non-farm payrolls data provided some relief to the US dollar, but it still looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. This weakness mostly reflects the market reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech on …
2nd December 2022
The US dollar came under renewed pressure and is set to end the week lower against most major currencies. To a large extent, this weakness came in response to surprisingly strong durable goods data easing recession fears, as well as the minutes from the …
25th November 2022
The dollar has recouped a bit of ground this week as Treasury yields have stabilised and the rally in risky assets has stalled, but the greenback remains well below its late September peak. As we suggested that they might, Fed officials have pushed back …
18th November 2022
The dollar is set to end the week substantially lower, adding today to its broad-based weakness following the softer-than-expected US October CPI report . The data were in line with our view that inflation in the US economy is easing, and investors have …
11th November 2022
After another turbulent week in currency markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week a touch lower against most major currencies after a mixed US payrolls report and hopes that China is about to relax its “zero-COVID” policy offset the …
4th November 2022
The dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies after an article today by the WSJ’s often well-informed Fed reporter, Nick Timiraos, suggesting some FOMC officials favour a (somewhat) less aggressive pace of tightening sent …
21st October 2022
The dollar is ending another volatile week in FX markets a touch higher against most major currencies. The market reaction to the upside surprise in September’s US CPI data (released yesterday) was perplexing, with US yields and the dollar initially …
14th October 2022
The dollar looks set to end the week on the front foot, having rallied over the past three days after a weak spell following the BoE’s intervention in the Gilt market last Wednesday. The key driver behind this rebound has been robust US data: September’s …
7th October 2022
During yet another tumultuous week in financial markets, the dollar has dropped back over the past couple of days after intervention by the BoE (in the gilt market) and the PBOC (in the renminbi) provided a degree of relief across equity, bond, and …
30th September 2022
Another eventful week in financial markets has seen the US dollar strengthen across the board as the FOMC’s 75bp hike and Chair Powell’s hawkish message hammered risk sentiment. The dollar is now near, or through, many of our (previously …
23rd September 2022
The US dollar has added to its post-CPI surge, leaving it stronger this week against all major currencies on the back of expectations for even tighter Fed policy and weaker appetite for risk. Although our central forecasts imply that yield gaps will …
16th September 2022
Today’s sell-off in the US dollar has left it little changed against most major currencies since last Friday. The catalysts for today’s decline, from fresh multi-decades highs, seem to be the ongoing hawkishness of the ECB and the rebound in risk …
9th September 2022
While the dollar eased back a little after today’s US non-farm payrolls report led to a reversal in US interest rate expectations, news that the Nordstream pipeline may not reopen as planned has seen it rebound. The greenback looks set to end the week …
2nd September 2022
Th US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher against most major currencies after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole reinforced the FOMC’s recent pushback against an early “pivot” sent equity markets tumbling and boosted the greenback . The …
26th August 2022
The US dollar rallied sharply this week, regaining most of the ground lost since its mid-July peak as US interest rate expectations rebounded and risk appetite faded . All G10 currencies fell against the dollar this week (see Chart 1), and we think …
19th August 2022
The US dollar continued to struggle this week as equity markets extended their rebound and commodity prices also rallied: the currencies of commodity exporters and other economies most exposed to global growth generally fared well. Wednesday’s …
12th August 2022
The huge upside surprise in US payrolls data pushed the greenback higher against most major currencies today in an otherwise quiet week for FX markets. The continued strength of the labour market in the US adds to our conviction that the Fed remains some …
5th August 2022
The dollar looks set to lose further ground this week after the FOMC’s 75bp hike was, somewhat strangely, interpreted as the start of a dovish pivot and US Q2 GDP disappointed . However, the greenback has rebounded a bit today after income and spending …
29th July 2022
After a series of strong weeks left it at two-decade highs, the US dollar seems set to end this week lower against most major currencies. Despite weaker-than-expected activity data out of the US, UK, and euro-zone this week, cyclically sensitive (i.e., …
22nd July 2022
Although it has dropped back a little today, the US dollar is on track for another strong week, rising further against all other major currencies and hitting a new 20-year high. At the time of writing, the greenback was at or around our end-2022 forecasts …
15th July 2022
The US dollar has continued to surge this week, with the key EUR/USD rate breaching a two-decade low and approaching the symbolic parity level as fears around Europe’s energy supply worsened. Solid US data, in particular today’s stronger-than-expected …
8th July 2022
The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies, nearing its strongest level since 2002 as “risky” assets remained under pressure. A key reason for the dollar’s rally is that weak activity data out of the US , including the …
1st July 2022
Amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook as more central banks raised policy rates, the US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Although we suspect the greenback may struggle to make new highs in …
24th June 2022
Among the flurry of central bank announcements, the continued plunge in equity markets, and wild gyrations across core government bond markets, currencies have been pulled in several directions this week. While the US dollar is ending the week only a …
17th June 2022
The US dollar rose against all major currencies this week, reversing some of its fall over the past month or so. Much of this strength came late in the week as equity markets came under renewed pressure in the aftermath of the ECB’s hawkish message at its …
10th June 2022
The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most major currencies, a third successive weekly decline, and a drop of ~3% in the DXY index from its multi-year high earlier this month. In part, this week’s fall probably reflects the rebound in …
27th May 2022
After another volatile few days across financial markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. (See Chart 1.) Given the renewed falls in “risky” assets, that is arguably somewhat surprising: the dollar generally …
20th May 2022
