The fluctuations following the release of PMI data out of the euro-zone, UK and US look set to leave the dollar broadly unchanged against most major currencies since last Friday. These data – along with evidence in Q1 GDP data of a robust recovery in China – are consistent with the pattern of brightening economic prospects outside of the US over the past six months or so. And today’s US PMI surveys notwithstanding, recent data out of the US suggest to us it is on track to fall into recession soon.
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