The US dollar has continued to tread water against most major currencies this week. With G10 central bankers generally sticking to their hawkish messages at the ECB’s Sintra conference and few major data releases, FX markets seem set to end the week (and the quarter) on the same quiet note that has persisted for much of 2023. While we wouldn’t be surprised if this calm continues in the short-term (especially with the robust US payrolls print we expect next Friday), we still think the greenback is poised for one more surge against most other major currencies as the US and other economies slip into recession in the second half of the year.
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