Filtered by Topic: Trump's second term Use setting Trump's second term
Notwithstanding recent setbacks, we continue to think that this year will see a major rally in US equity markets, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. Many of the key trends in financial markets in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of the US …
27th February 2025
Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive punitive …
While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels. From an energy price perspective, the looming ramp-up …
24th February 2025
Pills, chips and automobiles After last week’s focus on reciprocal tariffs, President Trump shifted his attention this week to product-specific tariffs targeting motor vehicles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, he …
21st February 2025
It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil …
OPEC+ confusion highlights risks of another delay Another week, another chapter in the book of the ongoing drama around when and whether OPEC+ will start to unwind its voluntary output cuts. Reports early this week suggested that the group was considering …
We doubt that Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff threat, nor his broader protectionist agenda, are priced in markets fully. We expect US Treasury yields and the dollar to edge up as these tariffs come into effect. In our view, this, alongside continued …
18th February 2025
Bank of Canada navigating without tariff roadmap The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s January policy meeting confirmed that tariff uncertainty had a hand to play in its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp. In particular, members of …
14th February 2025
January inflation bad, but could have been worse After a hot CPI report this week and a not-so-hot PPI report (at least not in the components that count) we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price measure increased by 0.28% m/m in January. That’s …
US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pursue imposing reciprocal tariffs triggered rallies in bond and equity markets, but we would be surprised if investors were really enthusiastic about the idea. Our assumption is that broad-based …
Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan on investor …
India most vulnerable to reciprocal tariff President Trump looks to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10%-20% on all imports to the US, and now appears to be favouring new reciprocal tariffs that will be imposed on a …
China is among a minority of countries that apply lower tariff rates on the US than vice versa, so it is not as obviously exposed to reciprocal tariffs as many others. But President Trump’s latest announcement underscores just how serious he is about …
Reciprocal tariffs a bigger deal than universal tariff President Trump appears to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10% or 20% on imports from all other countries. But the broad criteria that will be used to assess his new …
13th February 2025
Gaza will remain key sticking point for MENA President Donald Trump’s doubling down on the future takeover of Gaza and displacement of the Palestinian population has continued to spark backlash from governments across the Middle East and could derail …
If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed. But while most DMs would come out relatively unscathed, …
China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s leverage during future negotiations. If the US …
12th February 2025
Due to the relatively small size of the federal workforce and the large number of exempt positions, the federal government hiring freeze should have only a modest impact on payroll employment. More pain would be felt if the President follows through on …
11th February 2025
The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices than was the case during Trump’s first term. The …
10th February 2025
Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs thrown its way. Although Canada and Mexico have been granted …
Less than a month into the new Trump administration and already it feels as though enough has been written about trade, tariffs and US foreign relations to last four years. With events moving quickly – the president’s latest comments suggest steel and …
It’s been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn’t happen, and the implications for macro and markets. As well as discussing the …
7th February 2025
Do not write off tariffs President Donald Trump’s U-turn on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico this week, seemingly in exchange for a few trivial concessions from both countries, has reignited speculation he is using the threat of trade barriers as a bluff …
Note: Join us as we discuss how Donald Trump's moves to build out his policy agenda will affect energy, soft commodities, and metals markets in a Drop-in on Thursday 13th February 15:00 GMT/10:00 EST . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. …
Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in. Donald Trump has roiled commodities markets with a slew of orders in the opening phase of his administration. …
Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term. But could forces like shifting demographics and AI play a greater role in shaping long-term …
A court ruling against the administration has thrown Trump’s flagship tariffs into legal uncertainty, potentially disrupting the White House’s efforts to levy duties on US trading partners and strike new trade deals. Is this just a temporary setback or a …
21st May 2025
China’s additional retaliatory tariff of 50% on US imports marks another worrying escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. In this special online briefing, our senior economists answered client questions and addressed key …
9th April 2025
The escalation of tariffs by the US and China now threatens to rupture the flow of trade between the world’s two largest economies. In this special 30-minute briefing , our economists discussed the economic and market repercussions, with a particular …
8th April 2025
Markets have received a boost from news that the US and China have agreed to a significant rollback of tariffs. But how durable is this agreement – and will it mark a real turning point in bilateral trade tensions? Senior economists held a special …
12th May 2025
With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this special briefing to gauge the size and scope of the global response to the …
4th April 2025
We’d previously argued that President Trump was likely to try to bring the MENA region into the US’s sphere of influence, but controversial statements on the future of Gaza have brought that into question. In a joint press conference with Israeli Prime …
6th February 2025
President Donald Trump’s eleventh-hour decision to delay the 25% tariffs he had threatened to impose on Canada and Mexico is a good reminder of his unpredictable nature. We don’t think Trump’s U-turn necessarily means he’s bluffing about other tariffs – …
5th February 2025
While we expect the US to start a trade war this year, we doubt that the initial reaction to the tariffs on Monday will necessarily set the tone for 2025. To re-cap, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada over the …
4th February 2025
Although President Trump has hit pause on tariffs on Canada, his communications suggest he still wants a broader agreement on various trade issues. Given the chaotic political situation in Canada, it seems unlikely that such an agreement can be made in …
Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil …
After initially promising unspecified "countermeasures", the Chinese authorities have now fleshed out their retaliation to the Trump administration's 10% tariff hike on all US imports from China. The measures are fairly modest, at least relative to US …
The additional 10% tariff that Donald Trump has applied on Chinese goods will have a relatively modest impact on China’s economy, especially if the PBOC allows the renminbi to adjust. But this is likely just the first round in a protracted trade war with …
3rd February 2025
The past week was bookended by developments in two areas that will play a significant role in shaping the year ahead: tariffs and technology. Tariff man strikes On Saturday, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as on …
Donald Trump raised the stakes for the global economy with an announcement of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% tariffs on goods from China. What are the immediate macro and market consequences of this move, which countries could be …
31st January 2025
Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly …
2nd February 2025
Trump hits Canada, China & Mexico with tariffs President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy imports that …
Fed in no hurry with tariffs coming soon Underlying economic growth remains solid The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP came broadly in line with the updated nowcast estimate maintained by our data team. (See here .) Although GDP growth slowed …
We’re only a month in and it’s already been an eventful 2025 for financial markets. What do the coming months hold in store as Donald Trump builds out his policy agenda, central banks try to calibrate policy after the great post-pandemic inflation surge, …
29th January 2025
The inflationary impact of tariffs for all President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed to resume …
28th January 2025
This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal tariff and hence growing speculation about more aggressive …
27th January 2025
Tariffs are coming. That seems to be one of the key takeaways from an extraordinary week which began with relief that the new president’s inaugural address skipped talk of tariffs, but was followed by a stream of threats from Donald Trump to start raising …
The first week of the new Trump administration hasn’t thrown up any huge surprises in terms of policy announcements. But there remains considerable uncertainty about the impact of those policies and others mooted on commercial real estate. In this note we …
24th January 2025
