Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
PMI rises further as housing activity accelerates The construction PMI rose to its highest level in eleven months in February. Although encouraging, supply constraints remain a major impediment and input costs high, which we think will limit growth in the …
4th March 2022
Outlook for retail sales darkened by war in Ukraine The small rise in retail sales in January, after a steep fall in December, suggests that Omicron remained a drag on consumption. Although spending will have rebounded in February, higher energy prices …
The constraints on Russian supply will work in tandem with an improving demand-side picture from auto production to keep palladium prices elevated. As a result, we have revised up our price forecasts . Palladium prices have rocketed by almost 51% since …
ECB will stress caution and flexibility in light of Ukraine war. New ECB forecasts will show lower growth, much higher inflation. Policymakers will still plan to resume normalisation when and if the situation is clearer. At next week’s monetary policy …
3rd March 2022
The EU’s decision to suspend its debt reduction rule for another year gives countries the green light to ramp up spending on defence and cushion the blow from higher energy prices. Depending on how long the conflict lasts, and how severe the side effects, …
While supply-chain links between the EU and Russia and Ukraine are small, shortages of seemingly obscure inputs can cause significant disruption, and add to price pressures, if alternatives cannot be sourced quickly. Aside from the most energy-intensive …
The sharp downturn in consumer confidence in February showed that the cost of living crisis was starting to bite even before the war in Ukraine began. But despite the worrying correlation between house prices and sentiment, our base case remains that …
While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market (DM) government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war causes a sharp fall in output in major DMs, which, …
2nd March 2022
While gilt yields could drop further if the war in Ukraine escalates much further and/or it becomes clear that it is significantly reducing economic activity in the UK, at the moment we think gilt yields are more likely to rise over the next two years. …
One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run will depend to a large extent on its political and …
As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will be an immediate increase in Iranian supply, but fears …
Russia has already suspended the transfer of coupon payments on local-law sovereign debt to foreign investors, and the likelihood that the government and companies are unable or unwilling to make external debt repayments (besides those already affected) …
Inflation to breach 6% in the coming months After February’s surprisingly strong inflation outturn and with energy prices surging, euro-zone inflation is very likely to rise above 6% in the coming months. It then looks set to remain well above the ECB’s …
The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it is far from the levels recorded during 2008/09 and …
The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of energy rationing were not as damaging as one might …
1st March 2022
February's manufacturing PMIs point to decent industrial growth last month and support our view that the impact from Omicron waves on EM industry will be limited. However, the surveys suggest that supply chains remain stretched. And looking ahead, the war …
The ratcheting up of Western sanctions, alongside a tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a banking crisis, mean that Russia’s economy is likely to experience a sharp contraction this year. The outlook of course remains incredibly …
The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices will have a bigger effect on inflation in Italy and Spain this year than in Germany and France. Since the beginning of 2021, energy inflation has surged across the euro-zone, and the latest legs up in oil …
Higher government bond yields and falls in property yields across all sectors contributed to a deterioration in European property valuations in Q4. (See Chart 1.) While most industrial markets now look overvalued, for now we think that this is justified …
We expect that the rise in the gold price so far this year will continue in the near term as safe-haven demand builds. That said, we expect that the price will fall when/if tensions cool. But the extent to which the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) might …
Inflation rising, but ECB will pledge not to tighten prematurely The increase in inflation in Germany and much bigger jumps elsewhere mean that euro-zone inflation for February will come in well above expectations. However, the ECB has bigger concerns at …
The war in Ukraine and the ratcheting up of sanctions on Russia will have knock-on effects on the rest of the emerging world mainly through its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. Some EMs (e.g. Gulf oil producers) stand to benefit from higher …
Weaker borrowing likely to persist The muted rise in consumer credit in January suggests that the Omicron wave was still prompting households to exercise caution at the start of this year. With interest rates rising and the cost of living crisis only set …
More evidence that home movers remain active A third consecutive monthly rise in mortgage approvals suggests that housing market activity will remain higher than usual in the coming months as households continue to adjust to remote working. The rise in …
Net lending starts year on softer note Net lending to property fell back in January, after reaching its highest level in 18 months in December. But overall net lending remained in positive territory, though we expect a number of challenges to limit any …
Industry faring well as price pressures ease Manufacturing PMIs in February generally pointed to strong manufacturing conditions in the region, but the escalation of conflict in Ukraine adds to the clear downside risks to industry over the coming months. …
New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which this marks the start of an enduring break in Russia’s …
28th February 2022
In this Update , we answer the key questions about what the exclusion of Russian banks for SWIFT means for Russia and the rest of the world. What is SWIFT? SWIFT (“The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication”) provides payments …
The sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank freeze a significant portion of its foreign currency assets, rendering at least half largely unusable. The sharp tightening of capital controls today will remain the order of the day for some time, but …
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added significant new uncertainty for investors. We expect Moscow property will take a substantial hit, but the impact on the wider European property market will be limited. We have outlined our initial thoughts about …
As it stands at the moment, we still think that the Russian/Ukraine conflict is more likely to boost inflation in the UK by more than it reduces GDP growth and that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates at the next few policy meetings. …
The ratcheting up of Western sanctions over the weekend has left Russian banks on the edge of crisis. They face both large deposit withdrawals and the prospect of a rise in non-performing loans, which are likely to cause credit conditions to tighten and …
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 th February will have significant and far-reaching implications for some time to come. The situation on the ground is still in flux and the endgame is simply unknown at this stage. But as we explained in our reaction to …
25th February 2022
Amid all the volatility in global markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, we think there are several key lessons we can draw from the relative performance of bonds, equities and currencies that will help to inform how they might evolve from …
The Bank of England has yet to provide any clues to how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday may influence how far and how fast interest rates need to rise. (All our analysis on the conflict is collated on one page of our website. See here .) The …
Industrial steers better outlook for 2022 returns The latest IPF Consensus Survey suggests that commercial property will have a better year than initially thought. Our total returns forecast for 2022 is in line with that of consensus, but beyond this year …
Much has been made of UK property’s openness to Russian money following the invasion of Ukraine. But since the depreciation of the Russian ruble in 2014, Russians have become far less important to demand. As a result, we think the effects on UK property …
Back in safe-haven mode Just weeks after hawkish messaging from the ECB helped to weaken the Swiss franc against the euro (see here ), the Russia-Ukraine conflict has put the currency back into full-on safe-haven mode. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the exchange …
By far the biggest news this week has of course been the Ukraine crisis, and we have written extensively about the implications for the global economy, all of which you can find here . In this Weekly , we will bring out a few key points about what it …
Sentiment high before escalation in Russia-Ukraine conflict February’s increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator showed that confidence was high before the recent news about the conflict in Ukraine. It also showed that supply shortages remained …
Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The conflict probably won’t prevent the Bank of England raising …
24th February 2022
China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia financially and through trade as much as any Western …
The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook for the euro-zone. While things are changing rapidly, at this stage we think the main effects will be to push up inflation but to cause the ECB to tread …
Our forecast that lingering price pressures will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.50% now to a peak of 2.00% next year suggests there is little scope for market interest rate expectations to rise further. Even so, we think that an …
Sharp falls in property yields and an improvement in rental growth pushed CEE all-property values in Q4 up almost 5% q/q, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2007. (See Chart 1.) This was largely driven by the strength of industrial, but office …
This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our panel of senior economists will discuss these issues and …
In an extreme scenario, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices could add up to two percentage points to the peak in headline euro-zone inflation this year, and one-and-a-half percentage points over the year as a whole. The impact on ECB policy …
23rd February 2022
Homeowners appear to be pressing ahead with plans to move house even though stamp duty is now fully reinstated. Transactions inevitably dipped last October as sales were rushed through in September to take advantage of the tax relief. But since then, they …
Upside risks to inflation have risen Core inflation looks set to keep rising as the effects of global demand-supply imbalances persist. And the Ukraine crisis means that the risks to our above-consensus headline inflation forecasts lie to the upside. Data …
A spike in energy prices caused by significant disruption to Russian exports would lift Japanese inflation to 2% from April until the end of this year. However, the BoJ wouldn’t respond by lifting its policy rate as it wouldn’t be able to argue that …
