Homeowners appear to be pressing ahead with plans to move house even though stamp duty is now fully reinstated. Transactions inevitably dipped last October as sales were rushed through in September to take advantage of the tax relief. But since then, they have risen to 107,000, well above the 2019 average of 98,000 a month. We suspect that the adjustment to remote working is continuing to boost activity. After all, while the share of mortgaged households that moved house rose to its highest since 2007 last year, at 7% it is still a minority, and far fewer than have had their working patterns altered by the pandemic. As a result, home mover activity and transactions look set to be strong this year. But beyond that, rising mortgage rates and a diminishing stock of household savings will act to restrain activity.
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