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The Bank of Japan outlined a plan for reducing its bond purchases and hiked its policy rate by 20bp today. We think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting . Only one-third of analysts polled by Reuters, ourselves included, had …
31st July 2024
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin that on the long and variable lags of monetary policy. …
Bank will hike rates once more in October The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate by 20bp today and we think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting. Only one-third of analysts polled by Reuters, ourselves included, had expected …
With underlying inflation edging lower, RBA will refrain from tightening Although underlying inflation is running too high for the RBA’s liking, it is at least heading in the right direction. Therefore, although the Board will probably reiterate the need …
Growth should hold up in Q3 June’s strong activity data suggest that GDP may have rebounded even more strongly last quarter than we’re anticipating. The 3.6% m/m fall in industrial production merely reversed a similar-sized gain in May and wasn’t as …
The JOLTS labour market data for June will do little to change the Fed’s assessment of labour market conditions ahead of its policy announcement tomorrow, with slack continuing to grow gradually and clearer signs of an easing in wage pressures. With JOLTS …
30th July 2024
Significant homebuilding in the Sun Belt region over the past three years has restored housing inventory to pre-pandemic levels, which is why house prices there have stalled. In contrast, markets in the Northeast and California, which haven’t seen the …
Rising supply weighing on house price inflation Another moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in May adds to the evidence that sellers are losing their grip on the market due to increasing supply. Do not write our forecast for a 5% gain in house prices …
In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact some of the forces boosting equilibrium rates seem to …
Labour market shrugging off fall in job openings The conundrum of low unemployment despite falling job openings continued in June and we expect the labour market to keep treading water over coming months. Data released today showed that the …
Our best judgement is that in order to fund the increase in spending of £22bn outlined by the Chancellor today, Reeves will raise an additional £10bn a year (0.3% of GDP) via higher taxes and increase borrowing by about £7bn a year (0.3% of GDP). The …
29th July 2024
A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing and larger price falls reported in other indices, we …
As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost to productivity from the adoption of AI. However, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More evidence the drag on activity from higher interest rates is starting to fade June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is …
Economy contracted sharply in Q2, but will return to growth over coming quarters Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy contracted by 0.8% q/q in Q2, more than offsetting the 0.7% increase in Q1. The data were significantly …
Chinese PMI, Australian CPI, euro-zone GDP, the new UK chancellor’s statement to Parliament, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Fed…it’s a packed week of releases and central bank meetings and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks through …
27th July 2024
The Bank of Canada was already first off the mark compared to other G7 central banks and the second 25bp interest rate cut this week, to 4.50%, puts it further ahead in its loosening cycle. Governor Tiff Macklem said in his opening statement that “we are …
26th July 2024
GDP growth not quite as rosy as it seemed The acceleration in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.4%, was stronger than the consensus estimate of 2.0% but not a big surprise given the Atlanta Fed GDPNow was pointing to a 2.6% gain …
This week’s news that higher shipping costs pushed up the manufacturing input prices balance of the PMI survey to an 18-month high in July (see here ) has reignited concerns that shipping costs will drive a rebound in core goods CPI inflation. (See Chart …
Core PCE inflation data strengthen case for September rate cut Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a …
Weak Tokyo CPI may prompt BoJ inaction While we expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 0.3% at next week’s meeting (see our BoJ Watch ), only one-third of analysts polled by Refinitiv expect a rate hike at that meeting. The financial markets …
Case for RBNZ to ease strengthens According to a new survey released by Retail NZ this week, things are going from bad to worse for the domestic retail industry. Indeed, more than two-thirds of retailers reported that they had failed to meet their sales …
This website has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Underlying inflation may moderate faster than we expect The sharp slowdown in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo this month reduces the likelihood that the …
Almost ready to cut But economic resilience and sticky inflation will probably mean MPC waits until September We think rates will be cut to 3.00% next year, below current market pricing of 4.00% While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent …
25th July 2024
We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. In our opinion, another sustained and substantial rotation won’t begin until shortly before the bubble in the stock market bursts. And our baseline assumption is …
While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now believing we are still in the downturn phase of the …
We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. The 206,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June beat expectations, but the accompanying details were disappointing. April and May’s figures …
Stronger-than-expected growth unlikely to prevent September rate cut The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent …
Overview – Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us, disinflation has slowed amid …
Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather further momentum as real wage growth turns positive in the second half of the year. With goods inflation still having strong momentum, we now expect the …
Alongside its decision to cut interest rates today, the Bank of Canada struck a more dovish tone than in June, supporting our forecast that another cut is coming at the next meeting in September. The Bank’s second 25 bp cut, taking the policy rate to …
24th July 2024
The latest flash PMIs suggest that while GDP growth probably slowed in Europe at the start of Q3, it continued to recover in Japan. Although the rise in shipping costs has caused manufacturers’ input prices to rise, central banks may take comfort from the …
Today’s sell-off in the US stock market in the wake of a poor reception to yesterday’s results from the first two members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report during this earnings season is likely to have reassured those arguing we are in the early stages of …
New home sales remain weak New home sales were essentially unchanged in June after their 15% slump the month before, not helped by mortgage rates which remained stubbornly high at around 7%. So far in July, borrowing costs have declined and currently sit …
Gradual loosening cycle continues and another cut in September looks likely Following its interest rate cut today, the Bank of Canada reiterated that further cuts are likely if inflation continues to ease in line with its expectations. Our forecast for …
Disinflationary trend broadening out Fed officials growing more concerned about labour market downside risks Interest rate cut likely in September With the disinflationary trend broadening out and the unemployment rate rising, recent comments from Fed …
GDP growth appears to be slowing at the start of Q3 July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more …
Bank has pledged that it will keep tightening policy if inflation evolves as expected If anything, weak yen creates upside risks to Board’s inflation forecasts Bank will hike its policy rate by 20bp in both July and October At its upcoming meeting, we …
Recovery will retain momentum across second half of 2024 The strong rebound in the composite PMI in July suggests that the recovery of Japan’s economy will continue across the second half of the year. According to the flash estimate released today, the …
There are several structural factors that explain the underperformance of Canadian productivity growth compared to the US since the 1980s, but the underperformance in the last few years specifically reflects more cyclical factors including extremely …
23rd July 2024
Spike in rates takes sales to 13-year low The sharp rise in mortgage rates in April was the catalyst for existing home sales falling to a 13-year low in June. However, borrowing costs have since receded and timelier indicators of activity such as mortgage …
Which commercial real estate markets are set to recover first, and where will recovery be strongest? The Capital Economics real estate team has been looking closely at the comparative performance of the US, European and UK markets to advise clients on …
Without wishing to downplay the ugly fiscal picture, we think the new government is overplaying the gloom. We suspect more optimistic economic forecasts and various tweaks to the fiscal rules will save the new Chancellor from hitting the electorate with …
We doubt the independent pay review bodies’ recommendations for the government to give teachers and NHS staff a 5.5% pay rise will prevent wage growth from slowing to 3.0% by the end of next year. But if the government chooses to extend this pay rise to …
Much of the recent resilience in Australia’s house price growth can be attributed to a handful of capital cities where the property markets have gone from strength to strength. We believe that there are a number of factors that help explain the divergence …
The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We forecast that core PCE inflation will return to the 2% …
22nd July 2024
Overview – House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered by more than investors anticipate suggests …
The dramatic departure of Joe Biden throws fresh uncertainty into the US presidential election race. With just over three months to go, Democrats are scrambling to agree a candidate and Donald Trump is looking only slight less likely to win in November in …
After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris as “an extraordinary partner in all this” and, in a …
21st July 2024
