Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak economic backdrop in Mexico and the risk of renewed …
11th July 2025
Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and Central Europe than in Asia, but we’ve become less …
10th July 2025
Protests have erupted again in Kenya recently, bringing violence and instability, and highlighting that the government lacks the political capital to repair the fragile fiscal position. With international borrowing costs prohibitively high, financing …
3rd July 2025
The Taiwan dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar in recent months but, for a host of reasons, the central bank seems now to be less tolerant of further currency strength. Even without intervention, we think that the currency will give up …
2nd July 2025
The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the second half of the year will prove difficult for EM …
1st July 2025
Capital inflows into EMs held up well in June despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Were higher US tariffs to come into force after President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve ends, that could spur a bigger move in outflows. But …
30th June 2025
India’s goods trade deficit with China is now at a record high. This largely reflects rising goods imports from China which, while bringing economic benefits in some areas, are also raising concerns over the threat posed to domestic industry. Given …
25th June 2025
April’s activity data suggest that the weakness of South Africa’s economy in the first quarter of the year – in which GDP expanded by a measly 0.1% q/q – carried over into the start of Q2. Industry continued to struggle and the retail sector lost some …
18th June 2025
EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the majority of EMs, but sovereign debt dynamics appear …
12th June 2025
Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the legislature and the challenges the economy faces. Those …
10th June 2025
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear indications that it has frontloaded the remainder of the …
6th June 2025
The most frequent question we received from clients during recent meetings in the Gulf was whether lower oil prices would lead to a sharp slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector akin to that in 2014-16. We do expect fiscal consolidation to lead to …
5th June 2025
Most emerging market equities have held up surprisingly well of late, and in fact broadly outperformed global equities. But we think further outperformance is unlikely, especially for commodity exporters. Emerging market (EM) equities have been remarkably …
30th May 2025
Our new estimates based on trade in thousands of individual products suggest tha t rerouting helped to offset around half of the fall in China’s exports to the US during the first Trump trade war . If the US continues to impose high tariffs on China, …
29th May 2025
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) …
The South African Reserve bank resumed its interest rate easing cycle today, with a 25bp cut to 7.25%, and there was a marked dovish shift among the MPC, suggesting – as we have long thought – that the repo rate will decline further over this year. The …
The recent substantial volatility in global sovereign bond markets hasn’t altered our view that in most cases 10-year government bond yields will end this year near, or below, their current levels. We also think corporate bonds will continue to do quite …
We will be hosting a Drop-In at 3pm BST to discuss the key takeaways from the Budget and to answer your questions. Register here . South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s third attempt at delivering the 2025 Budget should have enough support …
21st May 2025
Core inflation in India rose to an 18-month high in April, but there are reasons to think that this overstates the extent to which the economy is running into capacity constraints. And with headline inflation at a multi-year low, further policy easing …
The unexpected victory for centrist candidate, Nicusor Dan, in the second round of Romania’s presidential election on Sunday marks a major comeback against the far-right, and will ease concerns about the country veering from its pro-EU stance. That said, …
19th May 2025
The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America and the Middle East will try to straddle the China-US …
16th May 2025
Nigeria’s long-running security challenges have brought obvious human costs, and they have also contributed to the economy’s woes by hurting output in the agriculture and oil sectors, weakening demand, and putting off investment. President Tinubu’s …
15th May 2025
Factories are slashing prices of consumer goods Core inflation has recovered somewhat in recent months, even as headline inflation has slipped back into negative territory. But the outlook for underlying inflation is still deteriorating, with the producer …
11th May 2025
The trade data available for March and April suggest that a large number of EMs have benefitted from a front-running of tariffs in recent months, particularly those across Asia (Taiwan, Vietnam and India). That said, business surveys have weakened, …
8th May 2025
Brazil’s current account deficit has widened sharply over the past twelve months and we think it could reach 4.0-4.5% of GDP over the next couple of years. This leaves the real vulnerable to renewed falls, especially if concerns about the health of the …
Chinese policymakers will probably find ways to keep the published unemployment rate close to their “around 5.5%” target for this year. But this may mask broader weakness in the labour market as a downturn in exports reduces new hiring, increases …
7th May 2025
The prospect of a flood of low-cost Chinese exports to African shores may help those economies suffering from high inflation but it risks undermining the growth of domestic industry. Governments in the likes of Nigeria, with a history of employing …
1st May 2025
This is a revamped version of our quarterly Financial Risk Monitor to include commentary and analysis of our latest EM risk indicators. Currency vulnerabilities remain near multi-year lows, large deficits leave the public finances in poor shape Higher US …
30th April 2025
A robust monsoon this year – as predicted by experts – wouldn’t have as big an impact on India’s economy as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it could boost employment and energy production. What’s more, it would anchor prices of key crops …
This Update answers five key questions on Romania’s rescheduled presidential election, the first round of which takes place on Sunday 4 th May. A victory for far-right frontrunner George Simion would likely raise concerns about the country veering away …
29th April 2025
Provided it was limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the overall economy of either country. The closing of the only land trade route is also largely symbolic – bilateral trade was …
28th April 2025
Mexico is well positioned to benefit if punitive US tariffs on China prompt a shift in US import demand towards other EMs, as seems likely, although its ability to ramp up exports in the near term will be constrained by some capacity constraints, …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2025) …
24th April 2025
Retail sales in China are more than ten times larger than the country’s exports to the US. As such, domestic goods consumption would only need to rise by a few percent over the next couple of years to fully offset the hit from US tariffs. But this would …
22nd April 2025
The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral institutions – and the threat of US withdrawal. An end to (or …
17th April 2025
The February activity figures out of South Africa showed that the economy was struggling even before the added headwind from US import tariffs. But while there are downside risks to growth, we still believe a combination of easing loadshedding and …
16th April 2025
The extremely high US import tariffs imposed on China will likely strengthen the forces that have driven multinational corporates to shift production for the US market away from China and towards other EMs in recent years. Those EMs with spare capacity in …
The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices and/or a more challenging external financing …
10th April 2025
The troubles at Brazilian bank Banco Master that have grabbed the headlines recently seem to be contained and, by most measures, the banking sector as a whole appears to be in good shape. But there has been a sharp run-up in lending to households over the …
Unless they are rolled back, the latest US tariff hikes mean that China’s shipments to the US will more than halve over the coming years, even assuming the renminbi weakens to 8.00/$. This will reduce China’s GDP by somewhere between 1.0-1.5% depending on …
9th April 2025
President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are particularly high on some of the lowest-income EMs, which are also among the most vulnerable to the suspension of US aid flows. That raises the risk of balance of payments strains, and also provides an opening for …
8th April 2025
China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and export controls have been expanded. This is an …
4th April 2025
Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we think growth will be very modest this year, perhaps just …
3rd April 2025
We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP depending on what happens to the exchange rate. China …
Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have less scope to act in the event of a renewed spike in …
2nd April 2025
The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial sectors, and the surveys already suggest that Mexico’s is …
1st April 2025
Underlying inflation problems in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America and perennial exchange rate worries in Indonesia mean that their central banks are, if anything, likely to react hawkishly to the effects of US import tariffs. Interest rates …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025) …
27th March 2025
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are most exposed with up to 1.6% of GDP at risk. But the …
The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. It’s too early to conclude that any of the affected EMs …
25th March 2025
