Filtered by Topic: Trump's second term Use setting Trump's second term
Détente is on shaky foundations The understanding reached between the US and China during talks in Geneva and London has now been formalised, with the White House revealing that a written agreement was signed off two days ago. US officials have confirmed …
27th June 2025
Europe is taking Trump’s side on China When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But the opposite is happening: US …
20th June 2025
Beijing continues to prioritise investment The State Council released another policy document this week promising to “further guarantee and improve people’s livelihoods.” But this latest pledge to support households is once again empty. The government has …
13th June 2025
Saudi in the driving seat of OPEC+ aggressive shift OPEC+ this week agreed to another 411,000bpd hike to oil output for July and there’s little reason to think that the cartel’s leader, Saudi Arabia, will reverse course on oil policy anytime soon. After …
5th June 2025
Court rulings leave trade policy in disarray Although this week’s court ruling – that President Trump doesn’t have the “unbounded authority” to impose universal tariffs on other countries – has been temporarily stayed, there is a fair chance that even …
30th May 2025
US tariffs on China likely to remain high Just a day after the US Court of International Trade ordered the removal of Trump’s Liberation Day and fentanyl-related tariffs, a federal appeals court put that ruling on hold. If the appeals court upholds the …
Fewer exports to US but more to other markets Chinese exports have so far held up much better than many had feared in response to US tariffs. In dollar terms they expanded a robust 8.1% in April . And there are few signs of weakness this month. Growth in …
23rd May 2025
Tariff man triumphant Following the agreement between the US and China to reverse most of the prohibitive tit-for-tat tariffs imposed a month earlier, stock markets have rallied further this week. The S&P 500 is now closing in on the high reached in …
16th May 2025
A deal is perhaps not so imminent Optimism that India was poised to seal a quick trade deal with the US has faded in the past week. Admittedly, Donald Trump still sounds positive about the negotiations – he claimed yesterday that India had offered a “no …
We still expect a slowdown this year The tariff de-escalation agreed at the start of this week is good news for Chinese exporters who were facing a collapse in exports to the US. But we haven’t changed our growth forecasts for China’s economy for a few …
UK-US trade announcement is no big deal The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced this week by President Donald Trump was none of those things. This rush to demonstrate progress on “deals” reveals a rising desperation …
9th May 2025
Five months ago, we incorporated a 10% tariff on all UK goods exports to the US in our forecast. That has turned out to be a good call. Despite this week’s UK-US trade deal, the 10% “baseline” tariff remains. (See here for our response to the US-UK trade …
OPEC+ shifts tack to recapture market share The decision by OPEC+ to deliver another punchy oil output hike in June was not too much of a surprise, but it confirms that the group are shifting tack to a more aggressive policy in order to recapture market …
8th May 2025
The negative reaction in financial markets undoubtedly played a key role in making President Trump reconsider his eye-wateringly high tariffs on China and his ill-advised plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But we suspect the dawning reality of what …
25th April 2025
China continues to rebuff Trump Earlier this week, President Trump gave the clearest indication yet that he is keen to row back tariffs on China, which he said would “come down substantially”. But, for now at least, the White House has ruled out doing so …
As we suggested in our Update from last weekend, it was only a matter of time before the increasingly adverse market reaction forced President Donald Trump to reconsider his plan to levy prohibitive reciprocal tariffs on all major trading partners. He was …
11th April 2025
The extraordinary tariff chaos over the past week and associated fallout in the financial markets (see our coverage here ) have increased the chances that the damage to the UK from the US trade war will be larger and that inflation and interest rates will …
At some point a partial rollback in tariffs is likely… The effective US tariff rate on China started the year at 11% (based on 2024 weights). It is now at 145%. Earlier this week we noted that tariff rates above 100% would cause Chinese exports to the US …
Opportunities for India amid tariff chaos All of our analysis of the latest twists and turns in the trade war – notably President Trump’s decision to postpone reciprocal tariffs (bar China) for 90 days – can be found here . Of course, things are subject …
The US-China trade war and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling and are now below breakeven fiscal and external levels for the many Gulf oil producers, notably Saudi Arabia. If oil prices stay low or even fall further, governments …
10th April 2025
Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in March …
4th April 2025
A weaker renminbi, just not against the dollar China’s response today to President Trump’s 34% “reciprocal tariff” on China was more aggressive than we had anticipated . (Initial thoughts on Trump’s tariff on China can be found here .) The moves take the …
Asian economies were hit with some of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs by the US. (See Chart 1.) Our initial response is here , and more of our coverage can be found on this page . Chart 1: “Reciprocal” Tariffs Sources : White House, Capital Economics …
Tankan consistent with further tightening Compared to other Asian economies, the 24% US tariff on imports from Japan announced this week looks rather modest. Nonetheless, the chances that the Bank of Japan will hike rates in May as we’re forecasting have …
MENA can’t escape Trump’s trade war The Executive Order signed by US President Trump yesterday brought a flat 10% tariff on all countries’ exports to the US with an additional reciprocal rate for some economies. While the Middle East may be less …
3rd April 2025
Tariff flip-flop amplifies confusion Markets reacted badly this week when President Donald Trump first imposed 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy. The next day, under pressure from the …
7th March 2025
Taiwan vulnerable to semiconductor tariffs China, Mexico and Canada have so far been the focus of Trump’s tariff measures. But it seems likely other countries will soon enter the firing line. Given its large trade surplus with the US, Taiwan is an …
Things change quickly with Trump as President. Only two weeks ago, the title of our UK Economics Weekly was “Trump’s tariffs tirade becomes more troubling for the UK” as it looked as though the UK’s goods exports to the US would be hit with a 25% …
28th February 2025
Pills, chips and automobiles After last week’s focus on reciprocal tariffs, President Trump shifted his attention this week to product-specific tariffs targeting motor vehicles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, he …
21st February 2025
OPEC+ confusion highlights risks of another delay Another week, another chapter in the book of the ongoing drama around when and whether OPEC+ will start to unwind its voluntary output cuts. Reports early this week suggested that the group was considering …
Bank of Canada navigating without tariff roadmap The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s January policy meeting confirmed that tariff uncertainty had a hand to play in its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp. In particular, members of …
14th February 2025
January inflation bad, but could have been worse After a hot CPI report this week and a not-so-hot PPI report (at least not in the components that count) we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price measure increased by 0.28% m/m in January. That’s …
India most vulnerable to reciprocal tariff President Trump looks to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10%-20% on all imports to the US, and now appears to be favouring new reciprocal tariffs that will be imposed on a …
Gaza will remain key sticking point for MENA President Donald Trump’s doubling down on the future takeover of Gaza and displacement of the Palestinian population has continued to spark backlash from governments across the Middle East and could derail …
13th February 2025
Do not write off tariffs President Donald Trump’s U-turn on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico this week, seemingly in exchange for a few trivial concessions from both countries, has reignited speculation he is using the threat of trade barriers as a bluff …
7th February 2025
Note: Join us as we discuss how Donald Trump's moves to build out his policy agenda will affect energy, soft commodities, and metals markets in a Drop-in on Thursday 13th February 15:00 GMT/10:00 EST . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. …
We’d previously argued that President Trump was likely to try to bring the MENA region into the US’s sphere of influence, but controversial statements on the future of Gaza have brought that into question. In a joint press conference with Israeli Prime …
6th February 2025
Fed in no hurry with tariffs coming soon Underlying economic growth remains solid The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP came broadly in line with the updated nowcast estimate maintained by our data team. (See here .) Although GDP growth slowed …
31st January 2025
Trump ups the ante against Russia Comments by President Trump that he would tighten US trade and sanctions policy against Russia if Putin does not agree to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine are likely to have been received with anger in Moscow. The …
24th January 2025
President Donald Trump’s first week back in office kicked off with a bang. He signed around 100 executive orders and strongly signalled that there were more policy changes to come. The week’s developments give us more confidence in our earlier assumptions …
Saudi-US relations already on a stronger footing Over the past year, Saudi Arabia’s shift toward China appears to have been on pause as it awaited to see the victor of the US presidential race. With Donald Trump now back in the White House, there are …
23rd January 2025
Peso a Damocles sword over stabilisation process This week’s CPI data marked another victory for Argentinian President Javier Milei. Inflation came in at 2.7% m/m in December, the third consecutive sub-3% reading, prompting the government to announce a …
17th January 2025
Real economy still firing on all cylinders The strong December employment figures were followed by news this week of solid gains in control group retail sales, industrial production and housing starts. As a result, we now estimate that fourth-quarter GDP …
US sanctions on Russian energy cause a stir Oil prices had a strong start to the week following the news of further US sanctions against Russia's oil sector. We outlined our thoughts here but in short, the disruption from these sanctions could take time …
More rupee weakness a sign of shifting priorities Data released this week showed that headline consumer price inflation fell from 5.5% y/y in November to 5.2% y/y in December. (See Chart 1.) Our initial response to the data can be read here . Food …
Still waiting for clarity on the Trump agenda More than two months after Donald Trump and the Republicans completed a narrow clean sweep in last November’s election, and with only 10 days until the inauguration, there is still massive uncertainty about …
10th January 2025
Trump softening his expectations on the war? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20 th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and recent comments from officials suggesting …
Trump has his eyes on the Canal When Donald Trump won the US election back in November, the last thing we thought we’d be writing about in this Weekly – just 10 days before his inauguration – was the Panama Canal. But the big news in the region this week …
Trump’s strange threat President-elect Trump’s warning to the EU to “…make up [its] tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” will not cause sleepless nights in …
20th December 2024
Trump tosses first social media hand grenade Here we go again. This week President-elect Donald Trump lobbed his first social media hand grenade since the election – threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if both countries didn’t do more …
27th November 2024
