We think that the recent outperformance in local-currency terms of the MSCI EM Index relative to the MSCI World Index of developed market (DM) equities will continue as the global economy recovers further. (See Chart 1.) Back in April , when stock markets …
25th August 2020
A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer behaviour and renewed restrictions is likely to be …
Firms’ selling price expectations rose further in July and are now higher than before the lockdown started in March, which seems to suggest that an average of the Bank of Canada’s three core inflation measures is more likely to rise than fall further, …
Q2 data was a mixed bag as all markets recorded shifts in yields while only a handful of markets saw moves in rents. That said, Scandinavian investment activity took a significant hit in Q2, and despite the pick-up in June and July, transactions look set …
24th August 2020
We forecast that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will make further ground over the next couple of years as the global economy continues to recover from the coronavirus shock and both monetary and fiscal policy remain extremely accommodative. Both the …
21st August 2020
Consistent with the sharp fall in economic activity, occupier demand weakened further in Q2. And with bargaining power shifting to the tenant, rental falls were also evident in many markets, with the sharpest declines recorded in the retail sector. (See …
20th August 2020
Investment and occupier demand plunged further in Q2. As expected, the retail sector bore the brunt of the impact, with capital values falling by almost 9% y/y. This drove down all-property capital value growth to just 3% y/y, the lowest since 2012 Q4. …
19th August 2020
If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. (See Chart 1.) That will prove the bottom given the lifting of lockdown measures since …
Although core CPI inflation remains muted at 1.6% in July, the surge in prices last month specifically could be the start of a more significant rebound, as the added costs and ongoing supply constraints stemming from the pandemic and physical distancing …
18th August 2020
Occupier demand slowed further in Q2 and although completions were exceptionally weak, vacancy rose in most sectors. As a result, rental values fell in the office, retail and apartments sectors, while industrial rents only nudged higher, with the weakest …
14th August 2020
Compared to many of the larger euro-zone countries, the coronavirus remains relatively well under control in the Nordic countries and Switzerland. With the exception of Denmark, there are at this stage no signs of a second wave. This in turn is helping to …
13th August 2020
GDP data for Q2 revealed sharp declines in activity in all major economies except China, driven primarily by slumps in consumer spending. Retail sales data for May and June pointed to an encouragingly sharp rebound, leaving sales above their pre-virus …
Despite the reintroduction of states of emergency in some prefectures, and renewed calls for jishuku (“self-restraint”) in many others, the steps taken by local authorities to curb the “second wave” of coronavirus cases have so far been tentative and …
Mortgage rates have continued to fall, hitting a record low 3.14% at the end of July. Alongside the reopening of parts of the economy, and pent-up demand from the spring, that has helped home sales bounce back strongly from their COVID-related dip. …
12th August 2020
Despite a rather lacklustre economic recovery, the housing market is already turning the corner. Demand has bounced back, helped by a decline in mortgage interest rates. The stamp duty cut will provide further support to housing transactions over the next …
11th August 2020
The economy is set to rebound strongly in the current quarter after its 12% slump in Q2, even if there is no further increase in GDP in August and September. Indeed, some of the high frequency data suggest that economic activity is almost back to its …
6th August 2020
The broad-based recovery in “risky” assets that got underway on 23 rd March has run out of steam since 8 th June. That is not because policy support has been dialled back. Instead, it appears to reflect renewed concerns about the spread of the coronavirus …
5th August 2020
The large share of consumer-facing services in the UK economy, combined with a deeper and longer lockdown than most other developed economies meant that the UK was always going to be hit harder than some other countries. But the larger fall in GDP in the …
The Gulf economies have been the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in the region but almost all countries have managed to put new daily cases on a downwards trend thanks to strict containment measures and aggressive testing. In contrast, new cases are …
31st July 2020
The number of new daily coronavirus cases in the region has continued to rise, with only Chile among the major economies appearing to get its outbreak under control. Restrictions have been lifted much more slowly in the region than elsewhere in the …
Private investment is down 7.3% y/y so far this year, held back by the uncertain economic outlook. State firms have stepped in to fill the gap. Despite a sharp downturn at the time of China’s lockdown in Q1, their capital spending rose 2.1% y/y during the …
The past month has brought further signs that countries across Sub-Saharan Africa are struggling to bring the coronavirus under control. Of course, the true extent of the spread of the virus is muddied by low levels of testing. South Africa has accounted …
Much of Latin America, South Africa, and parts of Asia – notably India and the Philippines – are still struggling to contain their first waves of coronavirus. And while policymakers in these countries have generally eased lockdowns over the past few …
Turkish financial markets have come under renewed pressure this month, underlining the risks posed by the country’s low level of foreign exchange reserves and large external financing needs. The threat of EU sanctions seems to have been the proximate …
30th July 2020
A new outbreak in Victoria has caused daily new cases to surge to a record high in Australia. By contrast, New Zealand has maintained its elimination of the virus with new cases remaining very low and only being detected in quarantine facilities for …
The second quarter GDP figures for the region that have already been published make for grim reading, but there is a big divergence between countries. In aggregate terms we estimate that Emerging Asia (excluding China) contracted by around 10% y/y last …
28th July 2020
Although there were further signs of stabilisation in June, we expect that the slow recovery in the economy will continue to put upward pressure on yields in the coming months. Meanwhile, rents fell by 0.4% m/m in June, the same pace as the previous …
27th July 2020
Operational changes announced by the Bank of Canada this week mean the pace of expansion of its balance sheet is set to slow. The Bank’s assets have surged by $420bn, or 350%, since February, a rise equivalent to 18% of GDP. The pace of expansion picked …
23rd July 2020
The rapid recovery in activity in May and June means that, after contracting by close to 30% annualised in the second quarter, GDP is already on course for a big rebound in the third quarter. But there are signs that the resurgence in coronavirus …
After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. (See Chart 1.) But while we think risky assets generally – and most EM currencies – will continue to …
22nd July 2020
Despite the Bank of England having slowed the pace of its gilt purchases to below that of gilt issuance (see Chart 1), our forecasts that it will expand the size of its quantitative easing programme by a further £250bn and won’t raise Bank Rate above …
With coronavirus cases hitting record-highs in Tokyo and rising in other urban areas, the government announced on Monday that it plans to give local governments greater power to request business closures. That could include penalties for firms that ignore …
21st July 2020
The various high-frequency data series that we have been following in our Recovery Trackers have indicated that activity in the Nordic economies has picked up sharply over the past three months. However, the release of monthly GDP data from Norway for May …
13th July 2020
After a brief pause in the second half of June, record low mortgage rates helped push applications for home purchase to an 11-year high in the first week of July. That will help reverse the earlier dip in existing home sales but, with credit conditions …
9th July 2020
Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including the US, UK and euro-zone, where we now expect falls in …
Euro-zone bank lending growth has jumped in recent months, as firms borrowed to tide themselves over while their revenues collapsed during lockdown. (See Chart 1.) At the same time, banks’ willingness to lend has been boosted by government loan guarantees …
7th July 2020
Overview – Energy prices continued to recover in June, but they remain significantly lower than at the start of the year. What’s more, we do not expect them to recover to pre-virus levels until 2022 at the earliest. Supply will comfortably meet any rise …
Overview – June was another good month for industrial metals. The prices of base metals made further gains, although those used in steel alloys (e.g. zinc and nickel) performed less well as wet weather in Southern China disrupted construction projects, …
3rd July 2020
Overview – The more industrial commodities performed particularly strongly in June on the back of the ongoing revival in global economic activity. We have become more positive on the outlook for industrial metals prices this year given higher …
2nd July 2020
The coronavirus extinguished a nascent surge in London house prices in Q1. Instead, housing demand in the capital collapsed during lockdown, and has been comparatively slow to return. That underperformance is likely to continue in the near-term, as virus …
1st July 2020
A slump in Korea’s automotive sector, which accounts for around 10% of GDP, is weighing heavily on the country’s prospects. The latest industrial production data which were published today show that motor vehicle output fell by 35% y/y in May, compared …
30th June 2020
Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. (See Chart 1.) While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions. The reduction in restrictions has …
While rental values fell sharply in May, this was in part offset by yields increasing at a much slower pace than the previous month. In turn, this led to a less steep fall in capital values, but annual returns remained negative. As the negative impact of …
26th June 2020
Policymakers in the region have started to ease lockdowns but, with daily coronavirus cases still trending higher, restrictions are being lifted much more slowly than in most other countries. And Chile’s government has doubled down on its lockdown in the …
25th June 2020
Market conditions have generally improved in recent months, with government bond yields remaining low, corporate bond spreads almost back to their pre-coronavirus levels and the FTSE 100 recovering almost half of its 33% slump in February and March. (See …
Developments over the past month suggest activity is rebounding strongly as restrictions are lifted. The CFIB measure of small business confidence has now made up most of its post-virus slump, and the Ivey all-economy PMI also rose strongly in May. While …
Governments across MENA have taken steps to re-open economies over the past month and, after a sharp downturn in April and May, daily indicators suggest that economic activity has started to recover. That said, activity remains well below pre-virus …
24th June 2020
China’s exports have held up remarkably well in the face of the sharp slump in global activity. They contracted just 3.3% y/y in US dollar terms in May. The detailed trade data published today show that a large part of that resilience was the result of …
With monetary policy likely to remain loose for a very long time and the world’s largest economies gradually re-opening, we think that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will continue to recover from their pandemic-induced Q1 slump. To reflect this, we …
After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months. (See Chart 1.) This is in large part due to the RBI’s …
