First waves still the big concern

A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer behaviour and renewed restrictions is likely to be relatively short-lived. New infection numbers and deaths are still low in most cases. And policymakers have previously demonstrated their ability to control the virus, suggesting that they should be able to do so again. Instead, the bigger concern is the persistently high number of new cases (and deaths) in much of Latin America, India and the Middle East & Africa. (See Chart 1.) We think that economic recoveries in these countries will lag behind those elsewhere in the emerging world.