Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Existing home sales rose for the second month in a row in October, although the gain of 2% m/m was modest. A lack of inventory is preventing an otherwise favourable economic backdrop from giving sales a larger boost. The coming rise in mortgage rates also …
22nd November 2016
The 25.5% m/m rise in housing starts in October was the largest since 1982, and starts were up in all regions and across both the single and multifamily sectors. While some of that gain will be reversed in November, this is welcome evidence that builders …
17th November 2016
The latest NAHB survey on builders’ expectations for multifamily production points to a 15% drop in starts over the next year. But with the demand for rental accommodation set to hold up, we don’t think that signals the start of a sustained downward trend …
14th November 2016
Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little on housing policy. But were he to attempt to loosen …
9th November 2016
Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase have been on a steady downward trend since mid-September. The drop in refinancing can be attributed to rising mortgage interest rates, as markets anticipate that the Fed will hike rates in …
7th November 2016
The Fed looks set to hike the fed funds rate in December, heralding the end of the period of ultra-low mortgage interest rates which has persisted since 2010. We expect 30-year mortgage rates to rise above 4% early next year, and hit 5% by the end of …
3rd November 2016
A rise in mortgage rates led a drop in refinancing activity in October, and a lack of housing inventory pushed applications for home purchase to their lowest level since the start of the year. With rates set to rise gradually from here, and limited …
2nd November 2016
After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house price growth is accelerating. Sellers have been able to …
1st November 2016
The drop in the homeownership rate in the second quarter was reversed in the third, as a favourable economic backdrop allowed for a gradual rise in first-time buyers. As a result, the number of rental households edged down. But a lack of homes for sale …
27th October 2016
Our estimate of housing equity withdrawal (HEW) shows that, in aggregate, households have yet to return to using their homes as a piggy bank. While the factors holding HEW back are likely to ease the outlook for HEW is, nevertheless, fairly subdued. …
26th October 2016
The small 3.1% m/m rise in new home sales in September comes after a significant downward revision to August’s reading, highlighting that low inventory levels are preventing any sustained rise in housing market activity. … New Home Sales …
The 0.6% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in August was the largest for 10-months. Given very tight market conditions, that acceleration was expected, and further house price gains are likely over the remainder of the year. … …
25th October 2016
The gap between the average price of new and existing homes now stands at a six year low. But that fall is mainly a reflection of limitations in the available data. There is little evidence that the new-build premium itself is falling. Accordingly, the …
20th October 2016
Existing home sales rose by a respectable 3.2% m/m in September, helped by a welcome rise in the share of first-time buyers. But with inventory levels still very low, rising housing demand is more likely to feed through into higher house prices than …
The sharp drop in housing starts in September was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector, so shouldn’t ring too many alarm bells. And with building permits seeing a strong pick-up, much of that weakness should be reversed next month. … Housing …
19th October 2016
Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from buying. And even if the proposals do help more people …
12th October 2016
A contraction in existing home sales, for the second consecutive month in August, failed to prevent a further decline in inventory levels. That lack of inventory is acting to constrain housing market activity – the pending home sales index points to …
11th October 2016
The 4.1% m/m rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in September does nothing to change the fact that mortgage demand has stalled since the start of the year. A lack of inventory is constraining demand for mortgages, a situation which is unlikely …
5th October 2016
Even accounting for the fact that the first estimate of house prices by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it is clear the house prices are accelerating. After seasonal-adjustment prices surged by 1.2% m/m in August, the largest gain in over 11-years …
4th October 2016
While the rising popularity of Airbnb may have worsened housing shortages in some cities, it is hard to blame the apartment sharing website on the nationally high level of vacant homes. Rather, homes being kept empty by homemovers seems to be the primary …
29th September 2016
House price gains are picking up pace as buyers compete for a very limited number of homes for sale. At the national level, the 0.4% m/m rise in July was the largest for six months. And with supply conditions tightening since then, house price gains are …
27th September 2016
The drop in new home sales in August was smaller than expected, and comes on the back of an upwardly revised surge in sales in July. That has kept market conditions tight, which will weigh on activity in the short term. But it shouldn’t take long for …
26th September 2016
Existing home sales fell in August, as extremely tight market conditions outweighed any boost to housing demand from favourable economic trends. With the inventory of homes for sale at its lowest for over 15-years, there is little chance activity will …
22nd September 2016
At the national level, the Zillow index of housing market confidence offers a similar perspective to other measures of housing market sentiment. But with its short history and infrequent publication schedule, it is hard to argue that it tells us much that …
21st September 2016
As expected, housing starts fell back in August. But more of a worry is that building permits fell for the second consecutive month, indicating that builders have yet to respond to tight market conditions. But with homebuilder confidence at a 10-year …
20th September 2016
Somewhat surprisingly, according to Ellie Mae the average credit score for successful mortgage applications has been trending up since the beginning of the year. But a closer look shows that rise is not due to increased caution amongst banks, but rather …
15th September 2016
The number of existing homes for sale has fallen to a 15-year low, which is both constraining housing market activity and putting upward pressure on house prices. But as new households struggle to find an appropriate home to buy that should boost demand …
14th September 2016
Despite a positive economic backdrop supporting housing demand, very low levels of housing inventory are putting off potential buyers. Mortgage applications for home purchase fell for the second consecutive month in August, to their lowest level in six …
7th September 2016
A lack of inventory continues to drive developments in the housing market. The number of existing homes for sale dropped below 2 million in July, its lowest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, a surge in new home sales has pushed the months’ supply of …
6th September 2016
The large 0.9% m/m gain in house prices reported by CoreLogic in July is likely to be revised down in due course. But with inventory levels at 15-year lows, the conditions are in place for house price gains to accelerate over the next few months. … …
According to an NAHB survey, land shortages are at their most severe since records began in 1997. Low interest rates may be making landowners reluctant to sell, while labour shortages will be curbing builders’ ability to tempt landowners with higher …
31st August 2016
At the national level, house prices rose only modestly in June according to Case-Shiller. But, with market conditions tightening, we suspect gains will accelerate from here and for now see no reason to change our forecast for a 6% rise in prices this …
30th August 2016
The key driver of low levels of existing home inventory looks to be movers deciding to keep hold of their previous home rather than selling it. In turn, that behaviour has been encouraged by ultra-low interest rates. And, with rates set to remain low …
26th August 2016
A lack of inventory is constraining existing home sales, with July’s drop reversing much of the growth seen in the previous three months. Indeed, the number of existing homes for sale is now at a 15-year low. Accordingly, even with further improvements in …
Against expectations, new home sales surged in July to reach their highest level in over eight years. But that has caused market conditions to tighten even further. And, with housing starts stalling of late, rising demand will lead to house price gains, …
23rd August 2016
Housing starts managed to rise modestly for the second month in a row in July, but their overall performance remains lacklustre. But with so few existing homes for sale and the labour market creating jobs at a solid clip, the conditions are in place for …
16th August 2016
Our expectation for a 6% rise in house prices this year puts us in the top eight out of 105 forecasters. But with market conditions very tight, and only a small acceleration in monthly gains needed to meet that forecast, we are see no reason to moderate …
15th August 2016
The impact of Brexit on the housing market has been short-lived and minimal. A widening in spreads meant that mortgage rates did not fall as far as Treasury yields, which have in any case since rebounded. Moreover, what drop in mortgage rates there was …
10th August 2016
Despite some signs that the rental market is losing momentum, low rental vacancy rates and the prospect of stronger growth in average hourly earnings mean that investors in residential real estate can look forward to solid rental yields over the next few …
8th August 2016
The drop in mortgage rates triggered by Brexit gave the refinancing sector a boost in July. But applications for home purchase dropped back, as tight credit conditions and a lack of housing inventory weighed on housing demand. … Mortgage Applications …
3rd August 2016
Low levels of inventory mean that, even with housing demand rising at a subdued pace, house prices are on the up. While the 0.7% m/m gain in June reported by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it demonstrates that home values are making slow but …
2nd August 2016
Tentative signs of a recovery in homeownership at the end of last year proved to be afalse dawn. But with the labour market performing pretty well, housing fairly valuedand credit conditions gradually improving, the latest reading should mark the floor. … …
28th July 2016
New homes sales have performed well in recent months, and now stand at their highest level for over eight years. But with housing starts stalling, inventory levels are becoming tighter. That implies the early signs of an acceleration in house prices in …
26th July 2016
Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the recent drop in mortgage rates following the Brexit result …
21st July 2016
The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a minimal impact on the US economy, we see no reason to …
20th July 2016
Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit conditions ease very gradually, builders will shift their …
19th July 2016
As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any further over the next few of years and, with buyers from …
15th July 2016
The shock decision by UK voters to leave the European Union is being felt in the mortgage market. The subsequent sharp drop in 10-year Treasury yields has helped mortgage rates down to close to record lows. But we doubt all of the fall in yields will feed …
14th July 2016
In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes. Although homebuilder confidence is overstating the degree …
6th July 2016
The impact from Brexit is being felt in the mortgage market. Mortgage interest rates have dropped on the back of a decline in Treasury yields, which has given refinancing activity a boost. Rates are likely to edge down further in the short term, but …
