Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The boost to consumers’ spending power from low energy prices is set to fade this year. What’s more, households face a big fiscal squeeze. And with unemployment nearing its natural rate, there is less scope for strong growth in employment to drive …
12th February 2016
This month’s RICS survey showed new buyer enquiries and new sales instructions picking up for a second month in a row. It seems increasingly likely that the first quarter of the year will see a temporary jump in activity, as landlords respond to the …
11th February 2016
There are some grounds to think that survey measures of the number of homes for sale may be being distorted by an increase in the total number of estate agent branches. That said, even after adjusting for this effect, the data point to a historically low …
9th February 2016
With transactions rising further during the month, activity in the market does seem to be warming up. Coupled with record low interest rates and growing competition between banks, transactions should climb at a gradual pace over the remainder of 2016. But …
4th February 2016
The Halifax index recorded another strong monthly rise in house prices in January. But with house prices already high, we think that the current rate of growth won’t be sustained for much longer. … Halifax House Prices …
Despite the BBA reporting a drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase among the major high street banks last week, a stronger performance by smaller lenders meant that total approvals for house purchase edged up a touch in December. … Mortgage Lending …
1st February 2016
In terms of its direct impact on a buyer’s monthly outlays, London Help to Buy appears to be a significantly more generous subsidy than the original equity loan scheme that it supplements. But in other important ways it is notably less generous. On …
House price growth accelerated in December, with the southern regions of the UK continuing to lead the pack. But the latest drop in transactions growth may be a sign that the current pick-up in house price inflation won’t last. … Land Registry Repeat …
29th January 2016
There are signs that house prices are approaching the limit of what the current level of incomes and mortgage lending terms can sustainably support. As a result, we believe that the next few years will almost certainly see the recovery in the housing …
28th January 2016
Nationwide recorded slower house price growth in January, while BBA mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a second consecutive month. But if many buy to let landlords rush to transact before the new stamp duty surcharge comes into force, the rest …
27th January 2016
Falling oil prices and growing uncertainty about the global economic outlook point to a lacklustre year for prime central London housing. Indeed, having already slowed sharply, prices in the most expensive parts of the capital will struggle to do more …
22nd January 2016
December’s RICS survey recorded the first rise in homes coming onto the market in nearly a year. But buyer numbers picked up too, and stock per surveyor fell during the month, meaning that the bigger picture is little changed. … RICS Residential Market …
21st January 2016
The recent easing in buyer demand suggests house prices are approaching a ceiling. We envisage house price inflation falling to 2% in 2016 and 2017 – giving wages a chance to start catching up with the house price gains already seen. This easing of price …
15th January 2016
Lenders reported rising credit availability for both commercial and residential property in the final quarter of last year. And expected demand suggests that interest in buy-to-let is holding up following last year’s stamp duty changes. … Bank of …
Competitive forces in the mortgage market have strengthened over the past year. But some types of borrowers have benefitted far more than others. In particular, pricing data show that competition to lend to borrowers with smaller deposits is still very …
12th January 2016
2016 won’t be an easy year for the UK economy, given the renewed fiscal squeeze and probable EU referendum in particular. Nonetheless, we expect it to weather these clouds relatively well and anticipate GDP growth of about 2.2%, close to last year’s rate. …
11th January 2016
We believe that UK house prices are fundamentally too high. But unless the economy lapses back into recession, triggering a spike in forced selling, a real terms correction, in which prices rise more slowly than incomes or rents for a run of years, is …
The shortage of homes for sale continues to dominate the market. But with house prices already high, its effects are being felt more in buyer demand and transactions activity – which both moderated in November. That said, the number of surveyors expecting …
7th January 2016
Today’s data from the Halifax revealed a slight pick up in house price growth during December. But with house prices already high and growing much faster than wages, we expect price growth to slow markedly during 2016. … Halifax House Prices …
Mortgage approvals for house purchase picked up in November. But the shortage of homes for sale is likely to act as a brake on transactions. Consequently, we think that mortgage lending will continue to be relatively subdued this year. … Mortgage …
4th January 2016
The recent easing in buyer enquiries is feeding into the mortgage market, with fewer mortgages approved for house purchase in November than in October. … BBA Mortgage Lending …
24th December 2015
Residential rental value growth has accelerated over the course of the year. However, much of this has been driven by the southern regions of England, which in turn seems to fit well with the comparative strength of economic activity and labour markets …
18th December 2015
Fears that BTL investors will trigger another housing market downturn by selling up en-masse if house prices begin to falter, are at odds with the evidence from the last downturn. Contrary to expectations, this shows that landlords stayed put. As a …
16th December 2015
Boroughs with the highest prices continue to see the slowest price growth and the biggest falls in transactions. That said, with Outer London prices rapidly closing the gap with the centre, it shouldn’t be long before price growth there begins to slow as …
11th December 2015
The RICS survey revealed a slight deterioration in the number of homes for sale. Admittedly, buyer growth has slowed. But with the number of homes coming onto the market still falling, there are few signs that conditions are about to improve. … RICS …
10th December 2015
According to the Halifax, annual house price growth slowed in November, albeit from a very high rate. That said, today’s Bank of England MLAR statistics showed LTIs rising for a second quarter, in turn emphasizing the need for the pace of house price …
8th December 2015
There has been little change in housing market conditions over the last month, as the shortage of homes for sale persisted. But it wasn’t all bad news, as the economic backdrop strengthened a little, and mortgage approvals recovered after a weak …
4th December 2015
The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase picked up again in October, confirming that last month’s dip was not the start of a weakening trend. In contrast, approvals for remortgaging cooled during the month, suggesting that the recent surge in …
30th November 2015
Today’s data showed that there has been little if any increase in house price pressures over the past month. And the Chancellor’s recent actions against buy-to-let strengthen our case that house price growth will stay restrained in 2016. … Nationwide …
27th November 2015
With little additional detail on business rates, and the Starter Homes Initiative simply a restatement of a policy announced last year, Help to Buy London and the Chancellor’s latest assault on BTL landlords are likely to be the main talking points of …
25th November 2015
Mortgage approvals for house purchase picked up in October, providing reassurance that last month’s unexpected dip was a one-off. There are plenty of reasons to think that mortgage activity will continue to pick up into next year, although the shortage of …
Housing starts recovered in Q3, reversing some of the dip in activity seen in the second quarter. But with labour shortages worsening and unemployment already close to a record low, a rapid acceleration in housing starts appears to be unlikely in the near …
19th November 2015
By the end of the year, the Government is expected to have set out new powers for the Financial Policy Committee over the buy-to-let mortgage market. But the quality of lending to that sector doesn’t appear to be particularly poor. This suggests that, …
18th November 2015
There was little reason to be cheerful about in this morning’s RICS survey. The big picture is that price pressures remain elevated and there is little sign of any imminent improvement in market liquidity. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
12th November 2015
While the strength of BTL lending will doubtless attract most of the headlines, today’s CML data show that more than half of BTL advances were for remortgaging rather than house purchase. This implies that the underlying growth in the BTL market is weaker …
11th November 2015
The rate of house price growth accelerated a touch in October, in part due to the shortage of homes for sale. And while consumer confidence slipped a little on the back of weaker economic growth, record low mortgage rates and rising credit availability …
6th November 2015
The recent return to deflation is boosting consumers’ spending power. Real household spending still looks set to grow by about 3% this year, the strongest rate for a decade. … Boosts to spending to fade next …
According to the Halifax, house price inflation accelerated to 9.7% in October. That is a much faster rate than is currently being reported by other indices and, at more than three times the rate of average earnings growth, is unlikely to be sustained for …
5th November 2015
Nationwide reported that house price growth picked up a little in October, despite a dip in mortgage approvals for house purchase during the previous month. Both figures suggest that the low levels of homes for sale are continuing to have a notable impact …
29th October 2015
House price growth accelerated in September, reflecting the healthy economic backdrop and the shortage of homes for sale on the market. But given that house prices are already high, we think that there is little scope for price growth to accelerate …
28th October 2015
The BBA reported a dip in mortgage approvals for both house purchase and remortgaging in September. But with economic conditions supportive, the number of buyers growing, and banks seeking to expand the size of their mortgage books, we think that this …
26th October 2015
The buy-to-let mortgage market has grown quickly over the last few years. But the majority of that growth has come from landlords remortgaging their existing loans, rather than new buyers entering the market. As a result, we think that concerns about the …
23rd October 2015
As an indicator of the UK’s increased labour market flexibility, the rise in self-employment over the past six or seven years has probably been a good thing for the wider economy. But we think it has probably been less positive for the mortgage lending …
19th October 2015
Most of the evidence suggests that prices have become worryingly dependent on record low levels of interest rates. So a period in which prices grow in line with, or preferably by less than, incomes now looks overdue. We expect house prices to rise by 5% …
16th October 2015
Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze and a referendum …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) …
13th October 2015
September’s RICS survey painted a similar picture to that seen in recent months. But with house prices already so high, there were tentative signs that buyers are increasingly wary of responding to the lack of stock by engaging in bidding wars. … RICS …
8th October 2015
Halifax house price inflation eased back in September. And over the remainder of the year, we would expect it to move closer into line with the picture being painted by the other major indices. … Halifax House Prices …
6th October 2015
The imbalance between active buyers and sellers on the market grew in August, as the stock of homes for sale fell further during the month. What the market needs is an increase in the number of homes for sale. This would help to alter the unhealthy …
5th October 2015
House price growth picked up in September, reflecting improving demand conditions and the shortage of homes for sale. With few signs that the imbalance between buyers and sellers is closing, we expect prices to rise a little faster towards the end of the …
30th September 2015
