Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Drop in mortgage approvals House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October. Looking ahead, even if uncertainty were to lift at the start of next year, the housing market fundamentals do not support a pick-up in activity. We think growth in …
29th November 2019
House price growth accelerates in November We wouldn’t read too much into November’s pick-up in house price growth. Indeed, the big picture is that, even if the economic and political uncertainty eases next year, house price growth will pick up only a …
28th November 2019
Mortgage approvals edge down in October Given the political and economic uncertainty, October’s drop in house purchase mortgage approvals came as little surprise. And even if uncertainty were to clear in the coming months, high house prices will keep …
26th November 2019
With housebuilders already close to capacity, the sector will struggle to sustain a further surge in output. As a result, if elected, we think Labour would likely to miss their manifesto commitment to build 150,000 council and social homes per year by the …
22nd November 2019
Housing completions have reached their highest level in over three decades. But timelier data on housing starts point to a weakening pipeline of construction. On that basis, we think housing completions could fall by 10% over the next three or four years. …
15th November 2019
Housing market activity faltering Against the uncertain political backdrop and with the economy weakening, the RICS survey data point to a weak near-term outlook for the housing market. Indeed, with house prices already very high and set to stay that way, …
14th November 2019
After a brief mid-year recovery, economic and political uncertainty is once again discouraging housing market activity. In all, the near term outlook for both housing sales and house prices is therefore weak. But beyond that, even if Brexit uncertainty …
8th November 2019
Annual house price growth slips below 1% Slowing house price growth on the Halifax index brought it closer to the other main price measures. With house prices high compared to incomes and interest rates close to their floor, we don’t expect a pick-up in …
7th November 2019
First increase in four months, but no recovery in sight October’s headline construction PMI increased for the first time in four months. But it continues to point to a deterioration in construction activity. Further, with Brexit-uncertainty prolonged, a …
4th November 2019
The Brexit extension and general election leaves the housing market outlook even more uncertain than a week ago. What’s more, given the vast distance between the two main political parties’ approach to the housing market, the December election could prove …
1st November 2019
Lending struggles to grow in September Mortgage approvals for house purchase and remortgaging rose in September, but annual growth in both were still weak. Looking ahead, the outlook is subdued. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, house purchase …
29th October 2019
House prices continue to stagnate House prices saw subdued growth in October. And while in wage-adjusted terms, prices are on a gradual downward trajectory, any meaningful downward adjustment will take time. Looking ahead, we expect house price inflation …
Overview – Regardless of what happens with Brexit in the months ahead, a revival in the owner occupier housing market is unlikely. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, we expect to see only a small improvement in housing market transactions and house …
24th October 2019
Mortgage lending weakens Mortgage approvals among the high street banks slipped in September. And while annual growth on the UK Finance measure has stayed strong, that reflects a shift in market share towards the main high street banks. The big picture is …
Lenders continue to tighten credit A weaker economic outlook and stronger risk aversion among lenders led banks to tighten credit availability in Q3. What’s more, lending to commercial property was also reined in. According the Bank of England’s Credit …
17th October 2019
London has led the fall in housebuilding, but more recently, construction has fallen sharply in nearly every region. Looking ahead, given continued economic uncertainty, housing starts are on track to see a sizable fall in 2019 – regardless of Brexit. But …
16th October 2019
Overview – Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31 st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our scenarios based on different Brexit outcomes …
14th October 2019
Housing market activity slumps in September According to the RICS survey, buyer and seller numbers fell sharply in September, as renewed uncertainty hit housing market confidence. But the big picture is that, even if Brexit uncertainty were to be resolved …
10th October 2019
Subdued house price growth here to stay September’s fall in the Halifax house price index chimes with the message from the alternative measures and suggests that house price inflation is subdued. Indeed, with house prices already high and interest rates …
7th October 2019
Housing starts fall again Housing starts fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2, pushing the pace of construction down to its lowest level in three years. Looking ahead, with Help-to-Buy set to be pared back and wider housing market activity set to …
3rd October 2019
Construction output set to drop in Q3 The fall in the headline construction PMI in September suggests that construction output contracted in Q3. For the commercial property sector, the softer supply pipeline may limit rental values falls. Meanwhile, we …
2nd October 2019
House price growth subdued The subdued picture for house price growth is unlikely to improve anytime soon. Even if a no deal Brexit disruption is avoided, we think high house prices, mortgage regulation and rising interest rates will keep house price …
1st October 2019
Approvals down despite strong price competition Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in August, more than reversing the gains seen in June and July. Looking ahead, despite evidence of strong price competition among mortgage lenders, we think a …
30th September 2019
House purchase mortgage approvals set to stay subdued August’s fall in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed July’s rise. And while price competition among mortgage lenders remains fierce, this has largely not translated into higher lending …
25th September 2019
The brief rise in London buyer activity proved to be short lived, suggesting that the capital’s housing market malaise has further to run. Indeed, even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided, we expect London’s house price decline to intensify, with prices to end …
24th September 2019
Increased competition among lenders has caused mortgage interest rates to fall in recent months. But funding costs are set to remain pretty stable. That, combined with already tight interest margins and increased regulation, leaves limited scope for rates …
20th September 2019
Stamp duty changes previously hinted at by the Prime Minister could affect over half of all home buyers, with more expensive homes seeing substantial savings. While the effect on house prices would be minimal, it could provide a modest boost to …
19th September 2019
Housing demand stagnates once more Having seen a small improvement across June and July, housing demand lost all upward momentum in August. Looking ahead, given the high level of house prices and ongoing political uncertainty, a recovery in house price …
12th September 2019
Mortgage price war is making its mark Price cuts from lenders have helped to push up the share of high LTV loans and fixed-rate deals, suggesting that the mortgage price war is increasingly making its mark. But there is little sign that lenders have …
10th September 2019
After spending much of the last year as an outlier, IHS Markit has fixed the Halifax index. In line with the other main measures, the index is now recording sluggish house price growth. And with the usual month-on-month volatility now greatly reduced, the …
6th September 2019
Renewed Halifax Index broadly in line with other measures While the revamped Halifax House Price Index pointed to slightly faster annual house price growth in August, it is a far cry from the unusually strong rates shown by the old series. Nonetheless, …
July saw the second consecutive monthly rise in new buyer enquiries and house purchase mortgage approvals, as Brexit uncertainty briefly eased. (See Chart 1.) But with house prices very high and economic uncertainty set to intensify once more, we expect …
5th September 2019
Construction continues to contract The decline in the headline construction PMI in August provides further evidence that construction activity has failed to recover so far in Q3. With firms cautious about the outlook, commercial property construction …
3rd September 2019
Labour’s proposed Right to Buy scheme for private tenants could have severe unintended consequences. The supply of property available to rent would fall, pushing up rents across the board. Moreover, if rented homes could be bought for a discount, the …
2nd September 2019
Gentle rise in mortgage lending House purchase mortgage approvals saw a gentle recovery in July. But with uncertainty set to intensify in the coming months, the rise in lending probably won’t be sustained. According to the Bank of England, there were …
30th August 2019
Market still sluggish in August House price growth was sluggish in August. With Brexit-related uncertainty set to continue over the next few months, a recovery in house price growth this year is unlikely. The Nationwide recorded no monthly change in …
Mortgage approvals edge up The rise in mortgage approvals published by UK Finance should be interpreted with care. It probably reflects lenders competing for market share, rather than a market-wide recovery in lending. According to UK Finance, among the …
27th August 2019
Accelerating wage growth has lowered the house price to earnings ratio, even as house prices themselves have continued to climb. Indeed, London has already seen an 11% drop in earnings-adjusted prices. Looking ahead, we expect wage growth to drive a …
22nd August 2019
The era of sustained, rapid house price growth appears to be over. But even so, the cost of owning a home is still favourable compared to renting and is likely to stay that way. That suggests that households’ strong preference for owner occupation will be …
19th August 2019
London’s rental market is shifting to a new phase of adjustment. Low returns and tax changes are driving landlords from the market, while rising wages and low unemployment are supporting tenant demand. As a result, fresh imbalances between rental supply …
13th August 2019
Market struggles to gather momentum The latest RICS survey showed a housing market struggling to gather any upward momentum. With Brexit uncertainty poised to intensify in the coming months, we expect house prices and transactions to see little or no …
8th August 2019
Housing demand improved in June for the first time in over two years. But with the rise driven heavily by regions with the most expensive prices, and another Brexit deadline looming, that doesn’t signal an imminent housing market rebound. Indeed, we think …
7th August 2019
Another unusually strong result from the Halifax House price growth on the Halifax index once again outpaced the other main indices. But we wouldn’t put too much weight on that result. With house prices very high relative to incomes and the likelihood of …
Data from the English Housing Survey suggest that rising tenant demand has come from newly formed households. That could reflect more young adults moving out of their parents’ homes, and supports our view that rental growth will rise to 3.5% y/y by 2021. …
1st August 2019
No sign of a recovery in house price growth There was no sign of a recovery in house price growth in July, and we expect the market to stay that way in 2019, regardless of the Brexit outcome. Data released this morning by the Nationwide showed the average …
31st July 2019
No rebound in mortgage lending While there is evidence of lenders successfully taking market share, overall growth in house purchase mortgage lending is muted. Looking ahead, with Brexit uncertainty likely to pick up again later this year, lending is more …
29th July 2019
Transactions fell sharply in June, but leading indicators suggest that the decline probably won’t be sustained. Indeed, assuming a no deal Brexit is avoided, we think housing transactions will fall by only 1% this year, before seeing a modest rise out to …
25th July 2019
Small rise in mortgage approvals According to UK Finance, house purchase mortgage approvals saw a small increase in June. But even assuming a Brexit deal is agreed, we don’t expect to see a sustained recovery in mortgage approvals until 2020. There were …
24th July 2019
Overview – Regardless of the Brexit outcome, we don’t expect a rebound in either house prices or transactions in 2019. Rather, there is hope of a modest improvement in housing market activity in both 2020 and 2021, assuming a no-deal Brexit is avoided in …
22nd July 2019
