Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
13th June 2025
Soft housing rebound While May’s RICS survey suggests the worst of the housing market’s recent weakness is in the rear view mirror, it points to only a modest recovery. Unless there is a more significant rebound in demand in the next few months, house …
12th June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’ll be discussing the outlook for fiscal policy and the economy shortly after the Chancellor’s Spending Review is released in a 20-minute online Drop-In at 3pm BST on Wednesday …
6th June 2025
Construction activity improves as tariff uncertainty falls back The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the third consecutive month in May, although the rise from 46.6 to 47.9 still suggests that construction activity is contracting. Within the …
5th June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further signs consumers are starting to spend a bit more freely April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs …
2nd June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Soft patch for prices already over May’s 0.5% m/m increase in Nationwide house prices adds to the evidence that the recent soft patch for the housing market was a temporary blip …
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
30th May 2025
Leading indicators suggest most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty rather than any longer-lasting influence of the softer outlook for the UK economy. This lends support to our …
29th May 2025
We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer outlook for the UK economy. This supports our view that a …
The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners and losers over the next five years and into the 2030s. …
28th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tentative evidence that house price falls are over The 0.3% m/m rise in Halifax house prices (consensus forecast -0.1% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) provides tentative evidence that the …
8th May 2025
Housing market left with no momentum The housing market should pull out of its current funk in the coming months even if the Bank of England were to suggest later today that interest rates won’t fall as fast as the financial markets expect. Meanwhile, a …
Single-family homes have outperformed other residential sectors over the past four years as a race for space and stretched homebuyer affordability have supported demand, at the same time as developers have offered bulk discounts in the face of waning home …
7th May 2025
Increased uncertainty weighs on commercial construction The headline CIPS construction PMI edged up to 46.6 in April, from 46.4 in March. That left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. A small rise in the housing and …
Overview – While the more uncertain global backdrop due to the new US tariffs regime means we have become more confident in our below-consensus UK GDP forecast, the prospect of falling mortgage rates suggests UK housing demand is well insulated from US …
1st May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Households tighten their purse strings March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. House price growth slows as stamp duty relief ends April’s bigger-than-expected 0.6% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices (consensus forecast 0.0% m/m, Capital Economics -0.1% …
30th April 2025
While the big easing in market rents inflation over the past few years suggests falls in all-tenancy rents inflation are in the offing, both measures of rents inflation will probably stay above pre-pandemic rates. At its heart, rental price inflation is …
15th April 2025
Housing activity set to slow in the near term March’s RICS survey suggests both the weak domestic economy and the headwinds from the global tariff storm continue to increase the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices. But the …
10th April 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Housing market loses steam in Q1 The 0.5% m/m fall in Halifax house prices in March provides further evidence that the boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases before …
7th April 2025
Rising interest rates and costs weigh on construction activity The headline CIPS construction PMI saw a small rise in March to 46.4, from 44.6 in February. But that still left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. …
4th April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend has largely reversed, with younger households valuing …
The easing in house price growth in both February and March suggests momentum in the housing market is waning. What’s more, as we now think the Bank of England will press pause on the interest rate cutting cycle later this year, mortgage rates may fall a …
2nd April 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. House prices continue to lose momentum The stagnation in Nationwide house prices in March suggests any boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases ahead of the rise in …
1st April 2025
Overview – We’ve become more concerned about the outlook for the economy due to the drags from higher businesses taxes and the more uncertain global backdrop being bigger than we thought and the boost from government spending being smaller. Our forecasts …
31st March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tentative signs households may be starting to spend a bit more freely February’s money and lending figures provide some green shoots of households starting to save less and spend …
Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise both defence and other public spending is only likely to …
26th March 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
The surge in rental demand is over, but rental demand will probably remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. That suggests the prop to rents growth in 2025 and 2026 from solid demand will fade only slowly. Fundamentally, changes in rental demand are …
13th March 2025
Weak economy finally taking its toll on housing demand February’s RICS survey suggests the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices from the weak economy continue to grow. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than most expect over …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. House prices may be starting to lose some momentum The small 0.1% m/m fall in Halifax house prices in February is at odds with the 0.4% m/m rise in the Nationwide measure and …
7th March 2025
Higher costs drive construction activity to post-pandemic low The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 44.6 in February, from 48.1 in January, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. Part of the decline was due to a sharp fall in the volatile …
6th March 2025
The ‘race for space’ following the pandemic and shift to remote work is evident in both the UK and US, with houses becoming more expensive relative to flats. And that premium for larger homes looks set to endure. While there may be a further small …
4th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Households still in the mood to save rather than spend The stagnating economy is partly because households appear to be continuing to save rather than spend, which is unlikely to …
3rd March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Housing market maintaining momentum as the wider economy is losing it Some of the bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices in February (consensus and Capital …
28th February 2025
The acceleration in house price growth in January suggests the housing market has maintained momentum as the wider economy is losing it. What’s more, our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further than is widely anticipated suggests the market will …
26th February 2025
Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast, to answer client questions about the macro and market implications, including: The big takeaways on tax, spending and investment; What …
The strength of the recovery in housing activity and prices in the second half of last year caught many off guard. But can the market continue to recover at this pace in the face of higher stamp duty and a weaker economy? Members from our UK Housing, …
25th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
A weaker economy than we previously thought could mean housing demand is a bit more subdued than we expect. But our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further than is widely anticipated suggests transactions will continue to recover and house prices can …
17th February 2025
Higher mortgage rates and weak activity starting to weigh on housing demand January’s RICS survey suggests that the recent rises in mortgage rates and the downbeat economic outlook weighed on housing demand at the start of this year. But bigger falls in …
13th February 2025
While it is possible that a fall in mortgage rates will trigger a modest increase in the number of rental properties over the next two years, we doubt this will offset the weakness in rental supply over the past decade. Our forecast is for tight supply to …
11th February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Housing market continues to shrug off sluggish economy The 0.7% m/m rise in the Halifax house price index in January is at odds with the muted 0.1% m/m increase in the Nationwide …
7th February 2025
Rise in interest rates puts a dampener on construction activity The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 48.1 in January, from 53.3 in December, indicating the first contraction in activity since February 2024. The decline in the headline balance …
6th February 2025
This is the first in a series of pieces that revisit our pandemic-era forecasts about the future of global real estate markets and cities and explore how they will evolve in the coming years. This dedicated page highlights key analysis from our earlier …
5th February 2025
Overview – Our forecast that mortgage rates will fall further than widely expected suggests that a decent recovery in transactions will allow house prices to rise by around 3.5% this year and by 4.5% next year, which would be a bit more than the …
4th February 2025
Recovery in mortgage lending will pause in Q2 Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected inflation in …
1st February 2025
