The 0.3% m/m rise in Halifax house prices (consensus forecast -0.1% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) provides tentative evidence that the falls in house prices are already in the past. That lends some support to our view that the recent soft patch was due to the temporary influence from the increase in stamp duty thresholds on 1st April. And that prices will still rise by more than most expect this year.
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