Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The UK appears to have fallen down the rankings as a target market for global property investors. In absolute terms, there is plenty of cause for caution about the outlook for UK capital values and total returns. But the prospects for the euro-zone …
1st February 2012
Over the past year, retail rental values have bucked the downward trend still evident in Spanish office and industrial rental values. But data showing that unemployment surpassed the 5 million mark in the fourth quarter and that weak domestic demand …
30th January 2012
Events in the euro-zone will act as a drag on property markets throughout Europe. As a result, most non-euro-zone commercial property markets will suffer some renewed falls in capital values this year, as growth drops below the rates needed to sustain …
26th January 2012
The recovery in capital values seen in most euro-zone property markets over the past year or so, looks set to be reversed in 2012. As the economy slides back into a deep recession, occupier demand will contract and rental values will fall. The recession …
All the headline indicators for the German office market, i.e. take-up, vacancy rates and rents, moved in the right direction last year. But we expect the final stages of 2011 to prove to be the high-water mark. With another recession and falls in …
19th January 2012
Fears that the recent sell-off in Hungarian assets might spread to commercial property markets across CEE are probably overdone. But in reality it will be hard to distinguish contagion effects from the impact of weaker economic growth and the risk of …
17th January 2012
December’s anti-government protests in Russia will no doubt have put political uncertainty back at the forefront of investors’ minds. Together with the prospect of much weaker economic growth this year and continued declines in global risk appetite, this …
11th January 2012
Bond investors’ growing preference for German over French sovereign debt is unlikely to be mirrored fully by commercial property investors in 2012. Valuations as well as economic fundamentals suggest that the demand for German property could gain at the …
9th January 2012
Given the prospect of a recession in Turkey this year, it could be argued that property yields are currently too low. Indeed, we expect them to increase this year. But their apparent resilience during the credit crunch and the positive long-term prospects …
5th January 2012
The spread between property yields in core and peripheral euro-zone markets has risen fivefold over the past four years. But with the risks both to occupier markets and to the survival of the euro-zone itself still increasing, that spread could very …
3rd January 2012
If we are right that all euro-zone member states will fall back into recession next year, commercial property investment volumes in the region are likely to be a major casualty. We would not be surprised if Europe-wide property investment volumes in 2012 …
20th December 2011
Switzerland does not seem to be awash with vacant industrial property, so the risks of a slump in rental values in this sector over the next year or two are low. But the looming euro-zone recession will be a major blow to the Swiss external sector and …
15th December 2011
In recent years, the spread between Spanish retail and office yields has switched from positive to negative. This is typical in other countries and also squares with the long-run outperformance by Spanish retail rents. Thus, the negative spread is no …
13th December 2011
The economic and financial market dislocations that will arise from a break-up of the euro-zone will have severe, negative consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Indeed, we think that over the next two years, a rise in yields and renewed …
9th December 2011
The strength of Warsaw’s office occupier market over the past couple of years suggests that the large and increasingly speculative development pipeline is not a risk to the rental outlook. However, a number of factors mean that the Polish economy is more …
6th December 2011
Q3’s plunge in Swedish consumer spending suggests that the outlook for the retail property market has deteriorated. Nevertheless, the low retail vacancy rate in Stockholm, together with strong demand from international retailers, is likely to prevent …
1st December 2011
Led by Poland and Russia, commercial property markets in CEE have been a relatively bright spot for investment in Europe. Yet, even here, growth in quarterly investment volumes has begun to slow. And despite survey evidence which still points to …
29th November 2011
Retail rental value growth in Amsterdam over the past year has been strong relative to other euro-zone markets and also relative to the office sector. In our view, there is little justification for the retail market’s outperformance and, in fact, we think …
24th November 2011
Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey evidence which points to a slowing investment market …
21st November 2011
The prospect of a renewed recession in Italy is likely to mean that in each of the next two years all of the main commercial property sectors will see capital value falls. But the weak outlook for consumer spending suggests that retail returns over …
16th November 2011
The surge in the Czech industrial development pipeline has coincided with a marked softening in the occupier demand outlook. But we do not think that the vacancy rate will return to 2009’s highs, while the low level of Czech industrial rents also reduces …
15th November 2011
Most non-euro-zone European economies will avoid a recession in 2012, but not a marked slowdown in GDP growth. Even so, the weaker outlook for occupier demand suggests that rental value growth in most markets will, at best, slow sharply over the next year …
10th November 2011
We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we expect most markets to experience some renewed falls in …
The weakening in sentiment towards European property markets revealed in the latest RICS survey is unlikely to be temporary. To our minds, if anything, it highlights the downside risks to consensus forecasts for economic growth and thus reinforces our …
4th November 2011
We have recently downgraded our forecasts for the Hungarian economy and now expect GDP to contract by about 0.5% in 2012. This is unlikely to drive a renewed slump in commercial property rental values. Even so, the risks are clearly to the downside and we …
2nd November 2011
This year’s changes to property taxation in Ile de France could result in a larger proportion of the potential office development pipeline being delivered to the market than otherwise might be expected. If this coincides with a sharp slowdown in occupier …
28th October 2011
Recent declines in Moscow commercial property yields have been steeper than we had expected. Even so, there are now signs that investment demand is softening. If we are right that the economy will cool and global risk appetite will fall further, there is …
25th October 2011
The stability of Spanish office capital values over the past two years does not preclude a second leg to the downturn. If anything, the prospects for office occupier demand and rental values have worsened in recent months, a development that is likely to …
21st October 2011
Record levels of commercial property investment in the Czech Republic in Q3 2011 were driven by the retail sector. But retail property in the Czech Republic is starting to look expensive compared to other European markets, and there are rising risks …
19th October 2011
Survey evidence suggests that the main German cities, as well as Geneva and Moscow, are the current, preferred destinations for firms looking to expand into new markets. Yet while this points to a relatively healthy outlook for office occupier demand in …
15th October 2011
Ireland’s robust rebound in economic output so far this year does not appear to have meaningfully improved the health of Dublin’s commercial property occupier markets. Although rents may now have stabilised, it will be some time before they begin to …
13th October 2011
For now, the risks of a marked fall in prime industrial rental values in Germany look low, despite the recent downbeat industrial data. But the comparatively low level of industrial yields in Germany leave property there more vulnerable than most to …
8th October 2011
Yesterday’s retail sales data showed that domestic demand is weakening across most of Europe. And there is little reason to expect the pace of household spending to improve in 2012. Against that backdrop, the recent expansion in 2012’s European retail …
7th October 2011
The office market in Oslo has been one of Europe’s star performers over the past year. Yet, there are good reasons to believe that the best of Oslo’s office occupier recovery may now be behind us. Indeed, we expect office rental value growth to slow …
1st October 2011
Our sub-consensus view that Polish GDP growth will slow to about 2.5%y/y in 2012 might suggest that the recent surge in commercial property investment activity could lose momentum. However, even if our cautious view on the economy plays out, Poland’s …
28th September 2011
Anecdotal evidence suggests that many investors believe that the Italian retail market offers a better risk profile than offices or industrial. We are not convinced. Indeed, with consumer spending likely to contract in 2012 and 2013, the risks to retail …
24th September 2011
The recovery in Hungary has disappointed in recent months and economic growth is likely to remain lacklustre in 2012 and 2013. That represents a downside risk for commercial property, but especially the Budapest retail market, where pricing seems most …
22nd September 2011
Q2 GDP data from Turkey look pretty encouraging. Yet we think that the economy is on track for a hard landing next year. This alone does not alter our views on the prospects for commercial property rental growth. But together with other factors such as …
14th September 2011
July’s fall in Spanish industrial production extended the recent run of disappointing manufacturing data. The deteriorating outlook for occupier demand suggests that take-up levels will remain at very depressed levels for the foreseeable future and …
9th September 2011
In contrast to Western European property markets, investment volumes in CEE have continued to rise. But the latest batch of disappointing economic data from Emerging Europe suggests that investor sentiment toward this region could rapidly deteriorate. … …
7th September 2011
The rapidly slowing trend in CEE office completion volumes seen over the past couple of years looks set to be extended next year. But this does not imply that the region will face a shortage of office supply. Indeed, if we are right that occupier demand …
2nd September 2011
If we are right that prime retail yields in Stockholm will fall further than those in Oslo, Helsinki or Copenhagen, relative pricing levels across Nordic retail markets will move out of kilter with recent norms. But in our view, that is justified by the …
1st September 2011
The recent flow of bad news on the German economy might suggest that the office market is beginning to look expensive. Yet, office/bond yield spreads are nearly as high now as they were at their peak and, although lacklustre, the economic outlook in …
26th August 2011
Q2’s sharp slowdown in GDP growth in the euro-zone’s so-called “core” economies is a worrying sign that investor sentiment across the region as a whole could fall sharply in the near term. If that is the case, then we think it is unlikely that euro-zone …
24th August 2011
Now that it is clear that the economic weakness observed in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies over the past year or so is spreading to the region’s core, commercial property investors might begin to re-evaluate where the fundamentals are sufficiently …
17th August 2011
The relatively strong macro drivers of industrial occupier demand in Belgium and the Netherlands are consistent with the fact that industrial rents in Brussels and Amsterdam are outperforming the rest of the region. However, we suspect that even the …
16th August 2011
To date, the strength of demand from international retailers seeking to enter the French retail market has been sufficient to offset softening demand from incumbent brands, in turn helping to support retail rental values. But Q2’s steep decline in …
13th August 2011
The current, double-digit pace of rental value growth in the Warsaw office market is not sustainable. But despite a large development pipeline, we believe that Poland’s relatively solid economic outlook is consistent with rental value growth of roughly 2% …
9th August 2011
Non-euro-zone economies will not be immune from the slowdown now unfolding in the single currency area. A slower pace of economic growth coupled with concerns about potential contagion from the crisis is likely to weigh on investment activity in Central …
5th August 2011
The weakening economic outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to act as a brake on the recovery in commercial property markets over the next year or two. Rental value growth will moderate in most markets and in the weaker peripheral economies, …
