Property returns to be dented by the global slowdown

Most non-euro-zone European economies will avoid a recession in 2012, but not a marked slowdown in GDP growth. Even so, the weaker outlook for occupier demand suggests that rental value growth in most markets will, at best, slow sharply over the next year or two, while Denmark, the UK Hungary and Turkey are all likely to see rental value falls at the all-property level. However, the already-high spread between property yields and risk-free rates should mean that any rises in property yields are modest. Russia is likely to deliver the strongest returns, but Poland will also outperform.