Filtered by Subscriptions: Latin America Economics Use setting Latin America Economics
Mexico’s exports holding up well … so far Figures out this week provided further evidence that Mexico's exports have been relatively resilient in the face of US import tariffs. Auto exports (compiled by local trade body AMIA) were down 3% y/y in May …
13th June 2025
Colombia: will the government deliver? The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be published next Friday will receive particular attention (and scrutiny) given the country’s increasingly fragile public finances – the latest monthly figures show that …
6th June 2025
A turning point for Mexico’s judiciary Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect almost 900 federal judicial positions and thousands of positions at the local level. Roughly the same number of posts will be up for grabs in 2027. This huge …
30th May 2025
Copom: one final hike? Brazil’s Q1 GDP data due next Friday should show that the economy recorded strong growth in Q1, supporting the case for the central bank to deliver one final hike in this cycle. Having slowed sharply at the end of last year, …
23rd May 2025
Copom minutes intensify debate over June meeting The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 50bp, have added further fuel to the debate over whether the tightening cycle is already …
16th May 2025
Lower oil prices a mixed blessing The announcement from OPEC+ over the weekend that it will increase oil supply further in June briefly caused the price of Brent crude to drop below $60pb. It has since recovered to c.$63pb at the time of writing, but that …
9th May 2025
Hold in Chile, BanRep turns dovish Andean central banks sent very different signals this week. In Chile, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 5.00% as expected. And policymakers still sounded somewhat concerned about inflation, highlighting …
2nd May 2025
Mexico: growth worries points to another 50bp cut Hard and soft activity data out of Mexico over the past few weeks paint a picture of a struggling economy. Admittedly, the IGAE index rebounded by 1.0% m/m in February. But that came after contractions in …
25th April 2025
Argentina: a step in the right direction It’s been a busy week for Argentina. Following the announcement of a fresh $20bn IMF deal over the weekend, authorities announced that from Monday a raft of capital controls would be eased and Argentina would move …
17th April 2025
Argentina & the IMF – 23 rd time lucky? The IMF announced this week that it had reached a Staff-Level Agreement with Argentina on a 48-Month Extended Fund Facility totalling $20bn – if approved, it would be the 23 rd IMF deal in Argentina’s fraught …
11th April 2025
Dodging large tariffs Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday. Mexico will remain subject to the duties announced through March which contained large …
4th April 2025
In a further escalation of his trade war, US President Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on assembled motor vehicles and some key components: engines and engine parts, transmissions and powertrain parts, and electrical components. (See our initial …
28th March 2025
Colombia: public finance risks back to the fore The resignation of Colombia’s finance minister Diego Guevara after just over three months in office has thrown the Andean nation into renewed disarray and raises big questions about the outlook for the …
21st March 2025
Will high inflation or weak growth win out? Brazil’s central bank is all but certain to follow through with a clearly-signalled 100bp hike in the Selic rate to 14.25% next week, so all attention will be on the statement: whether it includes forward …
14th March 2025
Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about whether Mexico will face tariffs on 2 nd April. Assuming Mexico faces a tariff …
7th March 2025
Mexico: tariffs loom (again) The coming days looks set to be dominated by tariffs, with President Trump (after some confusion around the timing) confirmed that the 25% tariff on Mexico (as well as Canada) will “indeed go into effect as scheduled” on …
28th February 2025
Colombia: lacklustre investment outlook GDP data from Colombia this week confirmed that 2024 was another very weak year for the economy. Growth came in at just 1.7% last year, far below the pre-pandemic average of 3+%. The one bright spot in the Q4 data …
21st February 2025
Chile: BCCh turns hawkish The minutes to Chile’s monetary policy meeting in January published this week, at which interest rates were left unchanged at 5.0%, were surprisingly hawkish. Policymakers made very clear that they’re concerned that inflation …
14th February 2025
Mexico dodges tariffs… for now The world was convulsed at the start of the week by President’s Trump’s tariff threats on Canada and Mexico, which were postponed for 30 days through last minute deals whereby both countries pledged to beef up border …
7th February 2025
Something’s coming… Latin America has been at the forefront of President Trump’s tariff latest threats. These included a (short-lived) announcement that he would slap punitive measures on Colombia, reports that the US will press ahead with a 25% import …
31st January 2025
The Trump administration’s first week has given policymakers in Latin America – and Mexico in particular – plenty to fret about. Unsurprisingly, migration has been a major focus for President Trump so far. His inauguration speech mentioned “returning …
24th January 2025
Peso a Damocles sword over stabilisation process This week’s CPI data marked another victory for Argentinian President Javier Milei. Inflation came in at 2.7% m/m in December, the third consecutive sub-3% reading, prompting the government to announce a …
17th January 2025
Trump has his eyes on the Canal When Donald Trump won the US election back in November, the last thing we thought we’d be writing about in this Weekly – just 10 days before his inauguration – was the Panama Canal. But the big news in the region this week …
10th January 2025
Anatomy of a (self-inflicted) crisis Brazil this week was on the precipice of a crisis – if not in one already. The real continued to tumble, hitting a record low of 6.3/$ on Wednesday – down around 10% against the dollar since late October. 10-year local …
20th December 2024
Milei has reason to cheer Tuesday marked Argentinian President Javier Milei’s first year in office, and he had plenty to celebrate. He’s made much more progress than we (and most other analysts) had thought would be possible. Inflation came in at 2.4% m/m …
13th December 2024
Brazil’s overheating eroding bumper trade surplus Brazil’s Q3 GDP figures released this week showed that the economy is overheating and unbalanced. Consumption and investment growth accelerated compared with Q2. Headline GDP growth was only weaker than …
6th December 2024
Mexico in Trump’s crosshairs President-elect Donald Trump fired the opening salvo in the next round of the trade war this week, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico (as well as from Canada, plus a separate tariff on China) on day …
29th November 2024
Mexico: meeting fiscal targets will be a tall order Mexico’s draft 2025 budget had been widely anticipated given the recent sharp deterioration in the country’s public finances – the deficit is set to come in at a multi-decade high of 5.0% of GDP this …
22nd November 2024
US President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations announced over the past week give us a guide to how his policies will affect Latin America. The fact many of his choices, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security secretary) and Thomas Homan (“border …
15th November 2024
Trump’s tariff threats – lessons from his first term The reaction in Mexican financial markets to Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been somewhat surprising. Having come under pressure as it became apparent that Trump was on course to win – …
8th November 2024
Mexico in the firing line The US election race is heading into the final stretch. All our analysis on what it means for EMs can be found on our dedicated webpage here . For Latin America, the implications for Mexico are largest. Both Harris and Trump …
1st November 2024
Brazil: fiscal dominance on the cards? Policymakers at Brazil’s central bank have sounded increasingly alarmed in recent media comments. Part of that reflects concerns that the economy may be overheating. We looked at that in detail in a piece earlier …
25th October 2024
Brazil: trying to tighten the purse strings (again) A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. There are three …
18th October 2024
Worrying developments in Mexico There had been a lot of debate about what to expect from Claudia Sheinbaum ahead of her inauguration as Mexico’s (first female) president and her first two weeks in office have provided the first insights into where her …
11th October 2024
Fiscal risks cloud the outlook for rates in Colombia The decision by Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) this week to maintain the pace of easing with a 50bp cut, to 10.25%, rather than deliver a larger 75bp cut suggests that officials are increasingly …
4th October 2024
Trump lashes out at Mexico Comments from Donald Trump this week highlight how big a threat his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade relationship with the US. Earlier this week, Trump threatened to hit John Deere with a 200% tariff …
27th September 2024
Milei’s ‘zero deficit’ budget The cornerstone of Argentine President Milei’s draft 2025 budget is a continuation of his ‘zero deficit’ policy, which implies a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025 (versus 1.5% this year). But this looks optimistic, for a …
20th September 2024
Mexico: judicial reform clears final major obstacle Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform passed the final major hurdle this week with approval in the senate. This has contributed to a sharp fall in the peso – the currency is …
13th September 2024
The strength of Brazil’s economy in Q2 means the central bank (BCB) now looks set to raise interest rates, having cut rates as recently as May. Still, monetary tightening is likely to be modest, of around 150bp (to 12.00%), and will end early next year. …
6th September 2024
Lula taps Galípolo In a move that had been long signalled, Brazil’s President Lula announced this week that Gabriel Galípolo is his nominee to take over at the helm of the central bank when the term of current governor Roberto Campos Neto finishes at the …
30th August 2024
Mexico: likelihood of September cut increasing The inflation and activity data out of Mexico this week, alongside the minutes to the central bank’s August meeting, mean that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, to 10.50%, at its …
23rd August 2024
Winds of change in Venezuela? Hopes for a regime change in Venezuela have risen after leftwing governments in Brazil and Colombia made several suggestions to overcome Venezuela’s impasse, including holding fresh elections or forming a transitional …
16th August 2024
Banxico looks through peso volatility and cuts The Mexican peso was on a rollercoaster ride this week. It was one of the hardest hit EM currencies in the market rout, briefly breaching 20/$ (the weakest level in over a year) in early hour trading on …
9th August 2024
We will discuss our latest EM Financial Risk Monitor in a Drop-In next Thursday. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. By hook or by crook The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election was met with …
2nd August 2024
Venezuela at a turning point? Venezuelans head to the polls on Sunday in what could be a pivotal election – the latest opinion polls put opposition candidate Edmundo González well ahead of incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, meaning there’s the biggest …
26th July 2024
Argentina: falling back into old habits? While it was a good week for Argentine football – the Albiceleste won the Copa America for a second consecutive time – the opposite was the case for Argentine financial assets. Sovereign dollar bonds and the Merval …
19th July 2024
Inflation data not as bad as headline rates suggest At first sight, the raft of inflation data out of Latin America this week made for worrying reading. Inflation rebounded in most countries last month, with the headline rate in Mexico reaching 5.0% y/y …
12th July 2024
Chile’s economy losing momentum Having made a very strong start to the year , the latest activity data suggest that Chile’s economy struggled in Q2. The monthly activity index (Imacec) contracted by 0.4% m/m in May – the third consecutive monthly decline. …
5th July 2024
Failed coup, economy on the ropes The news on Wednesday that armed soldiers had tried to storm Bolivia’s presidential palace in an attempted coup seemed to hark back to the Latin America of the 1970s (as well as a James Bond film of the 2000s). The …
28th June 2024
IMF praises Milei but more to be done The eighth review of Argentina’s $44bn IMF programme, which was published this week, is a whole-hearted endorsement of President Milei’s economic record. It notes that the “program remains firmly on track” and that …
21st June 2024
