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Strong exports to support growth despite tariff risks Economic growth in Taiwan picked up strongly in the first quarter of the year, helped by very strong exports and robust investment. Although Trump’s tariffs pose a downside threat to the economy, we …
30th April 2025
Dovish BoT and rising downside risks prompts forecast change Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by a further 25bps (to 1.75%) and the poor prospects for the economy mean more easing is likely soon. The decision was correctly …
Korea’s economy weakened further in Q1 and we expect activity to remain weak in the near term due to headwinds from tariffs and the bleak outlook for the construction sector. Data released today show that GDP declined by 0.2% q/q in Q1 (following growth …
24th April 2025
Rates on hold amid currency concerns, BI in no rush to cut The decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.75% came as little surprise and was correctly predicted by 24 out of the 26 analysts polled by Reuters, including ourselves. …
23rd April 2025
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing cycle soon The Bank of Korea today left its main policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, but we think this represents a pause not an end to the easing cycle. The decision was correctly predicted by 24 out of 37 …
17th April 2025
Singapore’s central bank loosened monetary policy again today and with inflation set to remain low and the economy weak, further easing looks likely in the coming quarters. The MAS conducts monetary policy by targeting the nominal effective exchange rate …
14th April 2025
Low inflation and tariff uncertainty supports case for further monetary easing The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) resumed its easing cycle today by lowering its policy rate by 25bp (to 5.50%) and in its communications highlighted the threat to …
10th April 2025
On hold throughout 2025 Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.0%), and is likely to leave rates unchanged throughout 2025. The decision to keep rates on hold came as no surprise and was correctly predicted by all 33 …
20th March 2025
Rates on hold, but further easing likely later in the year Bank Indonesia today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 5.75%) but hinted that further easing was likely later in the year. We are maintaining our view that the central bank will cut rates …
19th March 2025
Rates on hold (again), no change likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.0%, and once again made clear that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings anytime soon. The decision comes as no …
6th March 2025
BoT to cut rates further over the coming year Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by a further 25bps (to 2.00%), and we think more easing is likely before the end of the year. Today’s decision was predicted by just 10 out of the 26 …
26th February 2025
Further interest rate cuts coming The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today by 25bps (to 2.75%) – the third cut in the past four meetings. The move was predicted by 35 out of 36 analysts polled by Reuters, including ourselves. The central bank will …
25th February 2025
Rates on hold, but further easing likely later in the year Bank Indonesia today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 5.75%) but hinted that further easing was likely later in the year. We are maintaining our view the central bank will cut rates …
19th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
GDP growth in Thailand slowed in Q4, but we are expecting a better year ahead, with loose fiscal policy and further recovery in tourism spending set to be the key drivers. However, downside risks remain high. The 3.2% y/y rise in Q4 GDP was below …
17th February 2025
Economy enters a softer patch Malaysia’s economy contracted in Q4 but that comes after a very strong run in recent quarters. We think growth will ease slightly this year due to tighter fiscal policy and a moderation in investment growth. According to the …
14th February 2025
BSP to resume easing cycle soon In a surprise move the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today, but we think this represents a pause, rather than a halt to the easing cycle. The announcement was predicted by just …
13th February 2025
Official figures released today suggest that economic growth in Indonesia was virtually unchanged again last quarter at about 5.0% y/y, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. Our own Indonesia Activity Tracker (IAT) suggests that the economy …
5th February 2025
Interest rate cuts to support growth in 2025 GDP growth in the Philippines picked up slightly in the final quarter of last year, and we expect decent growth in 2025 as interest rate cuts help offset the drag from weaker exports and tighter fiscal policy. …
30th January 2025
Strong exports and investment supporting the economy Taiwan’s economy picked up in Q4, and we expect GDP growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, helped by continued strong growth in information and communication technology exports. The advance …
24th January 2025
MAS loosens policy, further easing likely amid low inflation Singapore’s central bank loosened monetary policy today and with inflation likely to remain low and economic growth soft, we expect further easing in the coming quarters. The MAS conducts …
Korea’s economy continued to struggle in Q4 and we suspect that the weakness in activity could persist in the near term due to the ongoing political crisis and the bleak outlook for the construction sector. Data released today show that GDP growth …
22nd January 2025
Rates on hold (again), prolonged hold likely Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.0%, and hinted that it was in no hurry to change rates anytime soon. The decision comes as no surprise – the outcome was correctly …
Tighter fiscal policy to weigh on growth Economic growth in Malaysia softened in Q3 and we expect a year of fairly subdued growth ahead as tight fiscal policy weighs on demand. According to the advanced estimate published today, GDP growth eased to 4.8% …
17th January 2025
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing cycle soon The Bank of Korea today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, but we doubt it will be long before the central bank resumes its easing cycle. The decision was correctly predicted by just …
16th January 2025
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%) and with risks to the inflation outlook skewed firmly to the upside we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2025. In contrast, the consensus is expecting the central bank …
19th December 2024
Low inflation in the Philippines to prompt further rate cuts The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today cut rates by 25bps (to 5.75%) for the third consecutive meeting and signalled that more rate cuts of the same magnitude are likely over the …
Currency concerns to keep Bank Indonesia on the sidelines Bank Indonesia today left interest rates on hold at 6.00%, and given worries about the exchange rate we don’t think it will be until the second half of next year at the earliest that it resumes …
18th December 2024
BoT to resume easing cycle next year Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged (at 2.25%), but kept the door open to rate cuts next year. With inflation set to stay very low and growth likely to struggle, we are expecting a total …
Interest rates cut, further easing ahead The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today by 25bps (to 3.00%) for a second meeting in a row. We were one of the few analysts to correctly predict a cut, with 34 out of 38 forecasters polled by Reuters expecting …
28th November 2024
Further rate cuts likely as deflation concerns increase Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) today loosened policy further, and hinted at more rate cuts over the coming months amid continued deflationary pressures, weak growth and a further improvement in the …
27th November 2024
Policy easing to resume in the second half of next year Bank Indonesia today left interest rates on hold at 6.00%, and we don’t think it will be until the second half of next year that the central bank resumes its easing cycle. The decision was broadly …
20th November 2024
Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q3 and we think the boost from loose fiscal policy will support growth in the coming quarters and help offset a slowdown in the tourism sector. The 1.2% q/q rise in Q3 GDP, following the 0.8% increase in Q2, was …
18th November 2024
Economy set to cool further The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth in Malaysia remained above trend again. Looking ahead we think GDP growth will drop back close to trend if, as we expect, a jump in inflation driven by the removal of food and …
15th November 2024
Growth to cool in the coming quarters GDP growth accelerated in Q3 but we think this strength is unlikely to last as slower growth in remittances, tighter fiscal policy and weaker export demand weigh on activity. According to the data published today, GDP …
7th November 2024
Rates on hold, set to remain unchanged Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.0%, and hinted that it was in no hurry to change rates anytime soon. The decision comes as no surprise – the outcome was correctly predicted …
6th November 2024
Indonesia GDP (Q3 2024) Growth has been accelerating, not stable as the figures suggest Official figures released today suggest that economic growth in Indonesia was virtually unchanged again last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official …
5th November 2024
Dovish central bank hints at further rate cuts The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate today by a further 250bps (to 15.0%) and sounded more dovish than it has done in previous meetings. Today’s cut marks the fourth consecutive meeting …
4th November 2024
Growth rebounds in Q3, exports and investment to drive economy over coming year Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. The advance estimate of GDP …
31st October 2024
The latest GDP figures showed a tepid rebound in Q3, following the contraction in Q2 and we expect Korea’s economic growth to remain below trend for the next few quarters. The advance estimate of GDP released today show that the economy expanded by just …
24th October 2024
Economy set to cool further Economic growth in Malaysia softened in Q3 but came in well above trend for the third consecutive quarter. Looking ahead we think GDP growth will drop back to trend if, as we expect, a jump in inflation driven by the removal of …
21st October 2024
We will be holding an online briefing later today to discuss the outlook for economic policy across Asia. You can register here . Hold does not mark the end of the easing cycle Bank Indonesia today left interest rates on hold (at 6.00%), but we think …
16th October 2024
Another 25bps cut, with more to come The central bank in the Philippines cut rates by 25bps and signalled that the recent economic data support its shift towards a looser monetary policy stance. Further gradual loosening lies in store in the coming …
We will be holding an online briefing later today to discuss the outlook for economic policy across Asia. You can register here . BoT cuts as deflation risks mount Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by 25bps (to 2.25%), but appeared to …
MAS pivot still likely in January The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, but with growth set to weaken and inflation on its way to target we think the central bank will loosen policy in January. The MAS conducts …
14th October 2024
Interest rates cut, further easing ahead The Bank of Korea kickstarted its easing cycle today with a 25bps cut. With growth struggling and inflation below target, we expect more easing over the coming months. The decision to lower the policy rate from …
11th October 2024
CBC in no rush to join regional easing cycle Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to accelerate we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the consensus is …
19th September 2024
Bank Indonesia today kicked off its easing cycle with a 25bps cut, taking its main policy rate to 6.00%. With inflation under control and the rupiah rebounding against the US dollar, further cuts are likely. While the decision was unexpected (it was …
18th September 2024
On hold, BNM to leave rates unchanged this year and next Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and is likely to be one of the few countries in Asia to leave interest rates unchanged throughout the rest …
5th September 2024
Rate cuts likely in October The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the central bank’s statement later in the …
22nd August 2024
